After the last tender of the treasure with monthly effective rates (TEM) higher than 2.5% for LECAPthe data of inflation from the City of Buenos Aires (2.1% in February) and in the middle of the negotiations with the IMPhe market Analyze what the Central Bank will do with monetary policy (BCRA) at its weekly meeting on Thursdays. Will the rate move?
It should be noted that the last time it modified this variable, the financial entity was on January 31 when it went down The monetary policy ratethe one that remunerates the fiscal liquidity letters (Lefi), from 32% to 29% annual nominal (TNA). The current level is equivalent to 2.42% Tem.
That last rate of rates occurred within the framework of The reduction of “Crawling Peg” to 1% for the official dollar with the objective of working as an anchor in the inflation reduction process. However, given the calm in The types of financial changes (guaranteed by BCRA intervention force)and scarce devaluation expectations (Especially for the pre -election period), the demand for “Carry Trade” continued. Given this, added to two “keys” that were published yesterday, The market evaluates whether the BCRA will modify the current level of the interest rate.
Rates: the factors analyzing the City
On the one hand, on Wednesday it was known that Finance Secretariat In its debt tender in pesos, it awarded a total of $ 4.45 billion in different financial instruments, with the refinance almost all of the commitments.
Thus were the rates of the LECAP: April 16 (which caught $ 2.58 billion) was 2.69% TEM; as of May 30, $ 912,000 million) in 2.55% TEM; as of July 31, for $ 616,000 million) in 2.50% Tem. For its part BANCAP As of January 30, 2026 ($ 146,000 million) cut to 2.53% Tem. All of them, above the current monetary policy rate of the BCRA.
On the other hand, it was known The inflation of the City of Buenos Aires. After 3.1% of January, the price rise registered a strong deceleration in February and reached the 2.1% last monthso the inflation of the first bimester accumulated in this jurisdiction 5.3%. In turn, the interannual variation was 79.4%, as indicated on Wednesday the Institute of Statistics and Census of the City of Buenos Aires (IDECBA).
Finally, there is another variable to take into account: The types of financial changes. He MEP dollar It is located at $ 1,229.34 while the CCL It is at the same level: $ 1,229.63. In this regard, the economist Gustavo Ber He anticipated: “Financial dollars remain very calm, with a BCRA that continues to accumulate reserves taking advantage of the greatest seasonality in the field of currency of the field ahead. Beyond tranquility, the operators are still attentive to The eventual novelties about the exchange regime that could be included in the new program with the IMF“
BCRA: Will it modify the interest rate?
“Inflation in the city fell in the general index but accelerated in the nucleus. The key in monetary policy today goes through the agreement with the IMFthe movements that can be seen in the rate will be aligned with the new exchange and monetary scheme that is defined in the agreement. As in other cases, prior to the firm the economic team can take measures in accordance with it, “the economist told this media Claudio Capraulodirector of ANALYTICS.
In this regard it is important to point out that President Javier Milei signed this week the decree of necessity and urgency (DNU) that enables the national government to negotiate with the International Monetary Fundso in this way the government enters the final stretch of the management of the new agreement. The understanding will be framed in a Extended Facilities Program With a period for the repayment of up to 10 years, with a grace period of 4 years and 6 months.
For its part, the economist Eric Paniagua, Also in talk with this media, he analyzed the data published this week and said: “I think they will try to have the closed data of the national CPI before attempting some rate modification. The data of the City of Buenos Aires was really a surprise, but it is known that there may be disparities with respect to the final CPI. “
In turn, Andrés Reschini of F2 financial solutions, It coincided with this analysis. “A priori does not seem to me that the decline in interest rates is the most likely scenario. We will have to see after the IPC data of Indec “, commented. It should be noted that the inflation data at the national level will be published this Friday by INDEC. According to the REM published by the BCRA, they project that LOn February inflation, it would be 2.3% monthly, which implies an increase with respect to that registered in January, which marked 2.2%.
Source: Ambito
