Reserved zoom of an economist on the agreement and the times with the IMF. What hides the DNU? What left the last tender of the treasure. And inflation? Tip: It is important to take Trump seriously but not literally.
While “Tariff Man” He continues to do his own, analysts and investors reset the expectations at a global level, and the libertarian government provides some relief with the “Habemus” according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) via DNU. The latest international events forced managers to evaluate Relations of investment portfolioswhich, for what is seen and spoken, turns towards the rotation from the great American technology, mainly in favor of Europe and China, being the governing criterion of maintaining a balanced and diversified allocation, which includes gold and coverage against the growing possibility of greater correction in the bags.
Many people in the global market annoyed with the unbridled action of President Trump, who so far has done nothing but comply with what he said he was going to do. It seems that the party watered, but the mistake is not to understand the character or his personality, or not want to do it, since it is characterized by doing what he says he will do and fulfills the threats. The projections of the impact of the commercial war say that it could add 2 more inflation points in the US. Therefore, they recalculate forecasts about what the Fed will do with the process of loss of interest rates. Undoubtedly, a bad sign for emerging markets that will see how fund flows are redirected to other destinations. In this framework, a manager linked to a Swiss group warned customers and colleagues that these days of bearish volatility and partially frame the decline in a political context, it is significant to consider the following: it is important to take Trump seriously but not literally; While it is possible that the catalytic of the retraction of the prices of the Variable Income is political news is also important to recognize that the market was valued for a perfect scenario.
For now, in the City Buenos Aires there was a lot, as expected, about the DNU with the background. Two recognized economists outlined a base scenario for their wide client portfolioMany are multinational companies, characterized by: the departure of the stocks in 2025 with some gradualness since the agreement with the IMF is approved, until then the official exchange rate would rise 1% monthly, the exchange market would end up unifying at the end of the year; The economy holds the heterogeneous rebound, inflation remains down, the fiscal balance is maintained. Regarding the negotiation with the fund, in a reserved zoom, an economist who knew how to be close to the presidential troupe, with links on Wall Street and in the international organism he explained to a group of entrepreneurs that Still the directors of the Fund had not received the memorandum of understanding, because it was not made, and that they take into account that these officials are taken, in general, about three weeks to analyze the memos. For example, he said, the representative of Japan, even sends it to Tokyo to evaluate it. In another encounter, a little more numerous and virtual, another colleague, also broad connoisseur of these leaders, He suspects that everything was for DNU because the negotiation would contain some type of length of the stocks, so the government would expect to close the agreement to bleach the issue. And as a manager told, with some international financial organizations, the people in the fund do not like DNU, for fear of obstacles of unconstitutionality and future judicial joking. On the fate of the new funds of the IMF, it was said that, although the president indicated that they would be to capitalize on the BCRA, in the facts it would only improve the liquidity of the asset, but would not generate changes in the net worth of the entity.
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The dollar leaked in desserts
In a gastronomic counterpoint among monetary market operators, it was clear that Continue adjusting the expectation of low interest rates. From there, they explained that the Lecaps curve (fixed rate) abandoned the negative slope and is already practically “flat”, spraying the performance gap between a short and long letter. Now, they believe that, under this new curve the prize can reappear for more “duration”, betting on the middle section of the peso curve. On the last tender of the Treasury they commented that he could have almost “roll-over” complete offering rates similar to those of the market, but at a shorter term. This would reflect that The market is not as liquid as it was believed.
One of the diners who came from participating in the monthly meeting with his advisors shared The prospects for inflation: will continue to go down gradually, without issuance to finance the treasury, slightly positive real rates and re-monetization of the economy. The issue of dispersion between the dynamics of goods and services arose, which even generates comments and suspicions as in the best time of Moreno. And anticipate that there will be acceleration if a unification occurs. Although most are masters of the “call money”, The dollar leaked to desserts. They consider that, if the rates do not go down and with the IMF DNU in Congress, the cost of exchange coverage will continue to grow, although there is no appetite by “dollar Linked” instruments as the last tender showed. They agree that the formalization of the agreement with the Fund will be the main driver for what is coming. Thus, in the case of the beaten “hard dollar” debt in recent days, yields in weights can be more limited because that positive scenario could also imply less pressure on the gap, especially because the seasonal demand of the dollar MEP (for tourism) and begins to raise the offer of exporters by thirty harvest.
The most veteran diners pointed out, with respect to the DNU of the Fund, that for the market the relevant in the short term is that the Congress filter passes, which is not rejected by both cameras, which happened only once in history. At the time of whiskey, despite the mid -time schedule, There were several jokes on the visit of “Dr. Doom ”, the well -known economist Nouriel Roubini, to the Casa Rosada and his praise cataract for the” visionary leader “Mileiabout who also said that he was a unique global policy creator in a generation that restores the economic success of his country and becomes a model to follow worldwide for having the courage to make tax adjustments and structural reforms concentrated in the initial stage.
Fund movements
In a tower of Puerto Madero overlooking the river, where it is said, the set of rates is settled, a group of investors acknowledged being “bought” but very close to the exit door, according to the saying of a well -known manager who opted for a long time and gloated to its potential gain. This expert from the world capital markets said there was a strong liquidation that still left a deficit of US $ 10,000 million to the CTAS after selling US $ 193,000 million in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, others such as HMC Capital were dedicated to capturing fresh funds with Fund XIII and the structured Equity Opportunities Fund II, did so for more than US $ 12.5 billion globally to channel in the Latin American region in alternative assets. The manager already manages more than US $ 90,000 million and in the last three decades they focused on “startups” and “technology, software and internet high growth.
Source: Ambito
