He Decree 186/2025published yesterday in the Official Gazette, gave the green light to A contribution of US $ 436.9 million to the third capital increase of Argentina to IDB Investan IDB arm. As it transpired, this movement not only reinforces Argentina’s position at the bank – where it holds an estimated vote power between 11.4% and 11.8% – but also, but also Open the door to new disbursements by the organism For Argentina.
“It is a clear sign: the government wants more IDB funds for specific projects and, incidentally, underpin reserves,” said a source close to negotiations. In 2024, the IDB already compromised US $ 3,800 million for the country, and The expectation is that this flow grows in 2025 to a range of US $ 2,500 au $ 4,000 million annuallyAlthough there are those who say it will be for a greater amount.
The debt with the IDB grows, a bridge to reach the elections
The link with the IDB is deep and expensive. Until the end of 2023, Argentina accumulated a pending debt with the bank of about US $ 14,000 million. Adding the recent loans –u $ 2,370 million in 2022, US $ 1,800 million in 2023 YU $ S3.8 billion in 2024–, the total balance due today amounts to some U $ S21,970 millionadjusted by partial payments. This makes Argentina One of the biggest debtors of the IDBbetween the 26 lending countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
These countries, which receive financing, concentrate just over 50% of the vote power in the assembly of governors. In contrast, the 22 non -lending countries – Germany, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, South Korea, Croatia, Denmark, Slovenia, Spain, the United States, Finland, France, Italy, Israel, Japan, Norway, Netherlands, Portugal, United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland – only contribute capital and do not take loans. Among them, The United States leads with a vote power of 30%, followed by Argentina and Brazil, the latter with 11.4% stable.
The timing of this maneuver is not accidental and has its own name: Ilan Goldfajn, president of the IDB and a key figure on this board. Designated in 2022 by Jair Bolsonaro, then president of Brazil, Goldfajn not only shares with Milei a promoted vision, but he already publicly expressed his support for the libertarian’s policies.
In April 2024, after meeting with Milei in Miami, Goldfajn highlighted the “commitment” of the IDB with Argentina and praised the structural reforms of fiscal adjustment and deregulation, aligned with his own career as the former head of the Central Bank of Brazil. His relationship with Bolsonaro, which catapulted him to the IDB and linked him to the conservative CPAC circle – where Bolsonaro and Milei have been recurring stars – adds a political wink to this bet. “Goldfajn sees in Milei a reflection of the ideas he defended: fiscal discipline and economic openness. It’s not just business, it’s ideology, ”said an analyst from Washington.
Relief to arrive before the elections
While The IMF and Caputo team advance in conversations for a new program that could add between US $ 10,000 YU $20,000 million in the total, but a minor amount of fresh money –With the declared objective to clean up the balance of the BCRA and leave the stocks, “the deadlines are dilated. “We are close, but the bun is missing,” they repeat from the economy, although In Washington the small print still cooked over low heat. In this interim, ABID emerges as a key ally: its loans, tied to infrastructure, social development and sustainability projects, arrive faster and less conditional than those in the background.
The strategy is not exempt from risks. Analysts warn that add debt to multilateraleven at preferential rates (the IMF charges about 6.47% annually, compared to 11.43% that would cost the market), does not solve the underlying problem: the lack of structural dollars. “The IDB can give temporary relief, but without a robust agreement with the IMF, the reserves will continue to be an Achilles heel,” an economist told this medium that requested reservation of his name. In 2024, the BCRA bought more than US $25,000 million in the market, but net reserves barely grew US $ 7,000 million, drained by debt payments and an exchange intervention that has already consumed US $ 2,400 million.
Goldfajn, the key link between Javier Milei and Washington’s dollars
From the Government they insist that the contribution to the IDB is not only a strategic investment, but a commitment to maintain the relationship with Goldfajn, former head of the Department of the Western Hemisphere of the IMF and a natural bridge between Milei and the multilateral organisms. “It is a game in two boards: the IDB gives you air now, and the IMF gives you the long -term support,” synthesized an official.
The market, on the other hand, observes cautiously. He country risk around 740 points Basic, and the exchange gap, although lower, has signs to take off, feeding speculation about an official dollar correction. In this scenario, IDB dollars are a lifeguard, but not a magical solution. “Without the IMF, everything is halfway,” warned a City operator. Meanwhile, in Buenos Aires and Washington, the calculator does not stop: every dollar counts, and the clock does not give truce.
In parallel, the Government explores a turn with the IMF, which some already call “Brady 2.0” plan. As transcended, the Casa Rosada seeks to restructure the agreement signed by Martín Guzmán in 2022, which refinance US $ 44,000 million of debt with the fund. The novelty: the IMF would not pay significant fresh funds, but would return US $ 3,300 million already paid by Argentinaof free availability, in exchange for a repayment commitment in 4.5 years with 10 years of total term, using resources from the agency itself to refinance those withholding. “It is not a new debt, it is a recycling of the old agreement, but with a wink for reservations,” they explained from the economic team. The plan, inspired by the debt restructuring scheme of the ’90s, aims to relieve immediate pressure without loading more to liability.
The key fact is that this turn does not imply structural lifeguard. US $ 3,300 million – the US $ 10,000 or 20,000 million that were rumored but can still emerge due to the US Treasury pressure – barely reach to cover close maturities and give a break to the BCRA, but do not solve the red of net reserves, estimated at US $ 9,000 million. In addition, the IMF offers to finance future withdrawals to the agency with its own resources – about US $ 4,000 million annually between 2026 and 2032 – which would reduce the bleeding of dollars, but at the expense of maintaining the dependence of Washington. With the political endorsement of Goldfajn from the IDB and the expectation of an IMF wink, Milei plays to gain time. However, the market already murmurs: Without an ambitious program that brings fresh dollars and credibility, the “Brady 2.0” plan could be just a patch in an economy that follows on the edge of the abyss.
Source: Ambito
