The reduction in the rhythm of adjustment of the official dollar implemented by the Central Bank (BCRA) from February had a very low effect on inflation of that month, according to the estimates of economists. Even so, in the coming months there could be a greater impact.
The undeniable deceleration of inflation that began to palpate towards the end of 2024 had exchange backwardness as a fundamental explanation factor, but the most relevant. This was one of the reasons why the goods were increasing well under the services (50.2% vs. 121.3% in the last 12 months), since the former have greater exposure to foreign trade and, therefore, to fluctuations in the value of the currency.
From the consultant CP They argued in a recent report that “the stability of the dollar is always important for Argentina, but its current relevance is greater because it is the main tool from which the Government intends to sustain the decrease in inflation.” In that context, they highlighted that in February “The authorities recently redoubled their commitment to the exchange anchor“By reducing the” monthly depreciation rhythm of the official dollar (from 2% to 1%) and allowing the expiration of the country tax without implementing substitutes. “
In February, the inflation of goods accelerated: how did the “crawling paste” impact?
However, in the second month of the year the INDEC Consumer Price Index (CPI) presented an increase of 2.4%, higher than 2.2% in January. The acceleration was explained fundamentally by the rise in food and drinks, highlighting the rises in meats (greater than 7% in almost the entire country), while also had the greatest increase in the education division, within the framework of the start of classes.
While the services rose again above the goods in the month in question (3.1%vs. 2.1%), while the former slowed over the previous month (from 3.8%), the latter showed an advance (from 1.5%). It is in this scenario that the specialists glimpsed, at least so far, Low correlation between the greatest exchange rate appreciation and price variations.
“We did not see that I have impacted the loss of the ‘crawling’ in the inflation data,” he said Leila García Kermanof the consultant Econviews before the scope consultation. From LCG They agreed and added that The greatest tension in the exchange gap (which forced the BCRA to sell reservations to contain financial dollars) “I could be adding some pressure“
The economist Gonzalo Carrerahe explained to this medium that, of the 37 items that can be seen disaggregated in the CPI, approximately 16 follow the exchange rate (either the officer or the parallels, depending on the context). “Taking the meat, from the remaining 15 items, eight presented decelerations (only five of them significant) and seven exhibited accelerations. Therefore, I would say that the effect of the decline of the ‘crawling’ is still quite incipient,” he said.
The specialist observed that In “foods that are not meat” there was some impact, while in the rest of the products, in particular the imported ones, the same did not happen. However, he recalled that these are items that “come very calm in recent months, between the decline of the country tax, calm in the exchange market and the greatest commercial opening.”
The government needs exchange anchor: What is expected for the coming months?
In the face of the coming months, Carrera predicted that the reduction of “crawling” will have a greater reflection in inflation.
The same expressed Camilo Tiscorniadirector of C&T economic advisors, stating that “the impact should begin to be seen, especially in goods.” As for what happened in February, it agreed with a career that “at the moment there has been much effect” of the change established by the BCRA for the official dollar, although it warned that It may have had some clothing effect (+0.4%), quite linked to exchange rates, or home equipment (+1%), division that includes appliancesmany of them imported.
In summary, the ruling party needs the next data to be accused of the exchange anchor in pursuit of its objective that inflation will drill 2% monthly. This is since in the last five months the general CPI showed similar variations, which shows Signs of stagnation in the deceleration process.
For March a significant change is not expectedsince education will continue to show pressure on the index, as well as the adjustments in the public transport rates and new rises in meats.
Source: Ambito
