The last measurement of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) placed the February inflation in 2.4%which marked an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points (PP) above January, when it was 2.2%. Before the data is published, the REM of the Central Bank predicted an CPI of 2.2%. Now, with the new scenario, the Economists of the City They already advanced their forecast for March: inflation will be 2.2% in the third month of the year.
The INDEC data for February was in line with what the President Javier Milei in an X post. Between estimates of relative prices disorder, the rise in services and a delay at the exit of the CEPO, economists expect that the CPI number not will pierce the long -awaited floor of the two points during the third month of 2025.
Inflation: After the February data, specialists expect for March
The last survey of market expectations released by the Central Bank, Prior to INDEC dataprojected that the CPI will be 2.2% in March. In this scenario, the City’s specialists gave their opinion on when the 2% floor will be drilled for the coming months of the year.
In this feeling, analysts explain that there are a number of factors that can press up pricing in March. Among the main ones are the adjustment of the rates and the specific rise in some Rubos, as happened with the values of the meat in February.
Javier Milei’s ex -analysis, Fausto Spotorno, analyzed a scenario where tendency to inflation is “Towardly“However, the economist clarified that reaching the objective of 1% will be a “much slower” phase.
In this sense, Spotorno explained that this process “will take a long time to lower that step of 2”. To achieve this, the president’s ex -analysis said that “the government has a couple of tasks forward such as leaving the exchange rate and adjusting more rates. Ultimately, this could lead to a Annual CPI on average close to 25%.
“Here the problem of Argentina is the relative pricing disorder. The government is rearranging the prices of the economy while trying to lower inflation. And you have these effects: a rate of rates increases you a little more inflation, “he added in dialogue with Radio Miter.
On the other hand, economist Enrique Szewach analyzed that the March variation “It may be a little above“That February. In contrast, the specialist hopes that” from April “the inflation rate is located”closer to 2% than 3% “, trend observed in the last data of INDEC and market forecasts.
“The services are raising more than the goods. Housing, electricity and water have been leftwhile the seasoning such as clothing and some other things below, “added the specialist on the last data of INDEC. In addition, the former director of the Central Bank added:” In normal conditions, for the middle of the year We should have a rate between 1% and 2%. “
February inflation accelerated after the strong increase in meat
As expected, the great traction for the acceleration of the IPC It was the meat and its derivatives that rose between 7% and 10%, depending on the region, and led to the item of Non -alcoholic food and drinks to increase 3.2%, being the one greater incidence in all regions.
“The key was at the price of the flesh: the kilo of roast rose 10% in Greater Buenos Aires”exemplified capraulo.
The meat and its derivatives suffered strong price increases, even 9.7%, as was the case of the region Patagonian. In variation, they followed Whose with the 9.3%, he Northwest with the 8.1%, he Greater Buenos Aires with the 7.6%, the Pampeana with the 7.1% and the Northeast with the 5.6%.
The main factors behind this increase included recent rains throughout the country, although also “to the lack of offer (still with drought drought of 2023 and with a stronger international market that leads to modifying productive strategies) and the elimination of export rights”, as Bisang explained.
Source: Ambito
