“The only problem I see is that The IMF was flatly wrong, does not understand a monetary economy And consequently he wants Argentina to float, ”said the experienced economist during a talk at one of the headquarters of the Jockey Club. In that sense, he affirmed: “I am enemy of the stocks, but I am much more enemy of social collapse“
Then he stated that “to the stock you have to get it little by little and when you can“And he agreed that” Argentina is not going to devalue. “” My concern is that The president and in the background like flotationand I am afraid that they will want to put a flotation with a band similar to that of 2018, and that will bring problems, “he warned.
In that sense, he investigated “What would have happened if Argentina floated in December 2024, left the free exchange rate and eliminated the stocks with a debt for unpaid imports of 40 billion and with negative reserves. People were going to buy 40 billion and they weren’t going to be. And what would happen? An immediate hyperinflation, “he said.
Exchange rate and dollar value
The economist stated that it is not time to lift the stocks in Argentina because “There is a bimonary economywhere two account units are handled: the weight for small operations, pay taxes and salaries; and the dollar for the rest. ” In that sense, he ratified that “When the dollar moves in Argentina, it moves in all prices.”
“The exchange rate has to be stable and cannot be free as long as it is an account unit. When it stops being an account unit and people forget the dollar, a cucumber will care about what happens with that currency, as in Brazil or in Chile, “he graphic.
However, its current analysis is that “the real exchange rate and Argentina is face in dollarsthis is so. The one who came with dollars in November and returns today has to pay 2.5 times what he paid before in dollars. ” “But in Everything that has to do with the exportable is slightly cheaperand in public services and services in general we are clearly cheaper, “he contrasted.
Then, Arriazu said that “if we take the entire basket Argentina is cheaper than the US, but the problem is that the money does not reach us because we are poor” “What people call behind is with respect to their aspiration, which is its maximum historical price, the problem is that this adds more than GDP and is an impossibility, but they try, and there A relative pricing shell is produced“, development.
To conclude, he continued: “One devalues, the other goes up rates, another goes up the salaries, the company rises prices, everything ends with a much higher inflation step and there appears an economist recommending devalue. If you do not stop that shell, you will never go to inflation, but The shell must be stopped after the necessary relative price changes. “
Source: Ambito
