He Ministry of Economy will announce on Monday the data of February of the Non -Financial National Public Sector, which would get so much again primary surplus. However, there is some concern in the market because there is a Tenure towards the decrease in the gap between income and expenses.
It should be remembered that, in January, although there was a positive result in the two variants, there is a negative trend. If fiscal dynamics are maintained over the following eleven months It is feasible that the financial surplus be diluted.
Everything indicates that the process of Chainsier of 2024 would have come to an end, since for the first time this year the expense grew in real terms.
In Januarythe National Public Sector (SPN) registered a fiscal surplus of $ 2.4 billion. After the payment of debt interest for $ 1.8 billion, the financial result was also positive for $ 599,753 million.
The Total SPN income amounted to $ 11.1 billion, which reflects a nominal increase of 80.6% that, adjusted by inflation, implies a 2.1% drop in real terms.
On the side of Public Expenditure, Erogations were recorded for $ 8.7 billionwith a nominal increase of 109.5%. When considering inflation, this represents an interannual increase of 13.5%. As he points out in a report from the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA) it is “the first expansion of spending after 17 consecutive months of fall.”
In that sense, if the FEBRUARY EXPENSE The National Public Administration (APN), which does not include the total of the SPNF, also a trend to growth.
The Argentine Budget Association and Public Finance (ASAP) raises in an analysis of the results of the APN last month that “For the first time since November 2023, the total expenditure accrued has a positive variation in interannual terms”It would be 3% real. Excluding interest payment The primary expenditure showed a positive variation of 10.5% adjusted by inflation.
The concepts with greater weight in the total expenditure presented disparate behaviors:
“The Social Security benefits continued with marked growth In interannual terms of 47.2% real, product of the combination of the recovery of retirement and pensions, and of the low level of the comparison base, consequence of the strong acceleration of inflation produced between December 2023 and February of the previous year, ”says ASAP.
In the opposite direction, the Remuneration deepened their fall to 15.1% year -on -year and current transfers fell 9.3%. However, inward transfers dissimilar behaviors are verified: while those destined for the private sector were reduced (15.7%), transfers to universities and the provinces grew in an interannual manner in 14.9%and 95%, respectively.
Is the “fiscal anchor” in danger?
According to estimates of the stock market Cohen Argentina in January the primary surplus was equivalent to 0.3% of GDP while the Financial was 0.07%. It is a deterioration of 0.02 points Regarding a year ago.
The expenses will continue to rise in 2025 because the government index the pension cost, which explains more than half of the total of the games, for past inflation.
It is a Type of untouchable disruption, so that if I had to re -apply chainsaw in 2025 it has to do it on other types of gamesthat are not many.
So is that Most likely, the surplus is limited, unless the Government begins to apply the rule that announced in the 2025 budget project that indicated that if the income went down, a cut in the same proportion had to be made. Thus, if taken to the letter, The Government would have to adjust the expenditure another 2% to equate with the decrease of January resources.
Source: Ambito
