The prestigious American newspaper The Wall Street Journal This Sunday published an article in which he analyzed the challenges for the dollarhe stocks, the inflation and the possible Argentina’s agreement with the IMF. In this way, he gave a forecast and launched some warnings on the course of the economic plan of the government of Javier Mileias well as the reaction of the markets before the measures implemented.
The article, entitled “The miracle of the Argentine market is in suspense”, with signature of Craig Mellowrecognizes the Recovery of sovereign bonds From the assumption of Milei, but warned that investors expect much more concrete signals about the economic direction in the long term.
The challenges for the agreement with the IMF, according to The Wall Street Journal
According to the medium, the decree signed by the President to pre -approve the agreement with the IMF confirms the advance of the negotiations. However, markets did not react significantly.
In that sense, The Wall Street Journal He warned for the coming months for the Argentine economy, and even said that the markets do not care too much of the signing of the according to the IMF.
“Bond prices did not register important variations, indicating that investors already discounted this agreement”Points out the report.
Since December 2023, “Los Argentine Eurobones They have experienced a strong recovery. The reference bonus with expiration in 2038 rose from 39 to 67 cents per dollarreflecting the confidence of the markets in the government’s tax adjustment, which has reduced the monthly inflation of the 20% to 2% Without generating mass protests, “he details the note.
The article also stressed that, although the streets have not reacted to the adjustment, the bonds have begun to stabilize at low levels. “Argentina has lived similar moments before, but breaking the cycle of economic crisis will have been for years”he warns Bruno BinettiChatham House researcher, in the published article.
Besides, It is mentioned that the new program with the IMF would include about US $1,000 million a large one to refinance the debt of US $ 40,000 million that Argentina maintains with the agency from the management of Mauricio Macri. However, the amount would not be enough to support the next challenge: The exit of exchange control.
Dollar and the stock: The prognosis of The Wall Street Journal for the government of Javier Milei
“The peso is still overvalued and that generates high dollar prices worldwide”explained the analyst Mauro Rocaanother of the specialists cited in the article of the Wall Street Journal today. However, releasing control over the dollar It could put advances at risk in the fight against inflation.
“Milei has achieved what many considered impossible in terms of inflation. It can do it again, but for now, the miracle of the Argentine market is still suspended ”concludes The Wall Street Journal.
“Argentina’s economic future will depend not only on the new agreement with the IMF, but also on the government’s ability to implement structural reforms that consolidate fiscal stability and sustainable growth”the article continues.
And he concludes: “Milei has already achieved what many believed impossible in inflation. You can do it again. But for the next half year, the miracle of the Argentine market seems to be suspended. ”
The challenges for Javier Milei in the election year
Another of the key points indicated in the article is the relationship with the United States. According to Mellow, “Despite Milei’s closeness with the president of the United States Donald TrumpAnalysts consider that this relationship has a limited impact on the Argentine economy. “
He also stressed that Milei maintains a popularity of more than 50%, even after the scandal of the Crypto $ Libra scandal. In contrast, its main adversary, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, has about 30% support.
“Macri went well in the intermediates of 2017, but a few months later there was a run against weight and everything collapsed,”Bruno Binetti recalled in the article.
The October legislative elections will be key to governance, since half of the Chamber of Deputies and one third of the Senate will be renewed. However, experts warn that a good electoral result does not guarantee long -term economic stability.
Source: Ambito
