Hurricane Trump rereciates. New tariffs 25% govern since Wednesday for aluminum and steel. And more is promised. In a couple of weeks it will be the turn to reveal, and release, the reciprocity regime that will adjust not only of the tariffs applied by third countries but also of the commercial distortions that propitiate their tax systems. Trump enjoys the center of the universe, even by the way of the creation and propagation of chaos. The important thing is that the world is aware of its decisions.
Trump knows how to placate the rebellions. Zelenski’s in the Oval Hall chopped in a position to accept the cessation of fire after a brief tangent. That of the Canadian Governor of Ontario – and his claim to collect a “tariff” of 25% to the export of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota – aborted attending it in the Ministry of Commerce with great kindness. It was not necessary to ruin the Canadian automotive industryas he threatened. China is unknown despite the fact that its tariffs climbed 20 points. Beijing was limited to the routine reprisal exchange. But, unlike 2018, he kept Yuan impassive and did not promote the international exchange stability fire. It is still a subtle dagger: so, the tariffs will be paid.
Trump also manages Entrecasa’s fights
Entrecasa’s fights are also administered without blood reaching the river. That of Elon Musk With the Secretary of State, Marco Rubiohe resulted in lowering the price to the richest man in the world, taking advantage of the fact that the markets did the same, and more sharp, with the action of Tesla. And the “Shutdown” challenge (government closure) was solved with the help of Chuck Shumerthe leader of the Democratic minority in the Senate. At the last minute as is the custom. Trump has no opposition. Nor the inhibitory brakes of your first period. The ostensible failures of its management do not regret it as the false step of the 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada that had to immediately reverse. Nor the adverse opinion of the experts (none with a seat in their cabinet, unlike their first mandate). Nor the bad results: the crucial turn is that it lost the reverential fear to the strokes of the bag. A Trump like this is more fearsome than ever. His agenda grew in vertigo and intrepidity. It now covers territorial claims of unpublished aggressiveness. And does not provide evidence that he has increased his limited expertise. For worse, Without even the Wall Street reference to evaluate the success of navigation, everything is summarized to what its personal criteria dictates, and its entourage repeats.
Threat of recession, less confident consumers and inflation as a threat
Will there be a recession? He was asked in Fox News. “I hate to make predictions”the president replied. “There may be some disruption. See, what I have to do is build a strong country. You can’t look at the bag. China has a 100 -year perspective. We guide ourselves by quarters. And it can’t be done in that way.”. A trimester of hardship, two … Change boy. The globalists who reject the vocation to make America Grande will be blamed.
Trump tireless machaca. His agenda destroys confidence at full speed, but still the economy (the one he received as an inheritance) resists standing. Consumer confidence fell 11% in Marchaccording to the University of Michigan. After three consecutive setbacks, it is 22% below December, and at levels such as those usually governed in recession. “While the economic conditions present changed little, expectations deteriorate through multiple fronts, including personal financial situation, labor market, inflation, business conditions and stock market”says the report. The high level of uncertainty around economic policies, and constant turns that prevent plans to be the main claims. Party affiliation affects the magnitude of discouragement, but does not cancel it. The confidence of consumers that democrats are recognized sank 24%; that of the Republicans, 10%. And that of independents, 12%. No one is comfortable in storm.
The inflation expectations of consumers exploded up. One year seen, they mark 4.9%. To five, 3.9%. How do you explain the explosion? Entirely because of the growing concern that arouses the impact of tariffs. It does not matter that its application is recent and does not gravitate in the records of effective inflation. It is pure expectation.
There are no vestiges of the Trump Rally
Investor confidence crosses too. The correction is already official. The S&P500 fell 10.1% since its maximum of February 19. In three weeks, the tariff saga passed the bill. Trump says, aggiornado, that the stock market is not the real economy, and is right. It is only a predictor, who as already seen, can fail. And for that reason, of the powerful Trump Rally – died between September and last month – there are no vestiges. He risked enthusiastically, but was wrong.
The bag is not the real economy. Consumer confidence is not consumption. Inflation expectations are not inflation. Trump the torture, The soft data melts, but the hard data has memory and does not deform under pressure. Not yet. The economy slows down, yes, but it retains growth not less than 1%. He created 125 thousand net jobs in January, and 151 thousand in February. January labor searches added 7.7 million, without appreciable changes. And the same applies to unemployment subsidy orders to March 8. It is not a recession or anything similar. Consumer inflation, which was reached in January, fell from 0.5% to 0.2% in February. The nucleus definition fell from 0.4% to 0.2%. If the median inflation is taken, it remains unalterable at 0.3% per month since August. The Fed knows, and that’s why he looks patient from the box.
The body endures. But all its solidity comes from the past. The reality of the present is a storm that does not cease. Trump just displays his ideas, militates the phase of the ads more than that of his implementation. Can Tenaz erosion resist? The bag, on Friday, rehearsed a powerful rebound and stamped its best day of 2025. The rebound of the dead cat? No, of the locked cat that retains muscle. But if the non -Zafa economy of the menu that today allows Trump either has a good prognosis. Perhaps the president meets in April with Xi Jinping to whom he always takes care not to offend personally. If an agreement emerged, it would be a diversion in time, a first sign of relief in this gale of prefabricated uncertainty.
Source: Ambito
