The last INDEC report showed that In the third quarter of 2024 the GDP improved 3.9% compared to the previous quarter. Thus, The accumulated fall was reduced to 3%from the 3.4% that had been recorded in the data of the second quarter.
From the point of view of aggregate demand, the intertrametral improvement was driven by a 12% rebound in the investmentalthough it should be noted that this was the most affected variable in interannual terms (-16.8%). He consumptioncomponent of greater weight in GDP, exhibited a more limited recovery (+4.6%), although its annual decrease was also lower (-3.2%).
The only variable that had increases in all its indicators was that of Exports. The upward variation with respect to the third quarter of 2024 is mainly explained by the low comparison base (due to the drought of 2023) and the great performance that external external sales of oil had during the past year.
Economic recovery shows great sector heterogeneity
It is in that framework that, at the sector level, Agro and the energy and mining sector were one of the few who showed a better activity than a year ago. The restaurant and hotels item also threw rises, while in “teaching” and “private homes with domestic service” faint increases were observed.
At the far end, The falls under construction (-14.9%), commerce (-6.1%) and manufacturing industry (-5.9%) highlightedthe three with a lot of incidence in the Argentine economy.
A “proxy” of GDP is the monthly estimator of economic activity (EMAE) that INDEC publishes with a little less lag. The last data, corresponding to December, It showed an accumulated decline of 1.8% in 2024.
Analysts estimated a contraction close to 2.5%, so the figure exceeded expectations. This occurred since, After touching a deep floor in April, the activity had a sustained recovery and already exceeded the level of August 2023, when the recession began.
However, recovery shows a Great sector heterogeneity. While agriculture and energy lead the dynamics, and some items such as commerce show a stronger rebound, other relevant activities such as industry and construction are still unrelent.
While the credit It appears as the main engine of the economy, other indicators move with ambiguity. As for consumption, growth is seen in durable goods (from credit) and a decrease in supermarket sales. Commercial opening can benefit some items for the greatest access to supplies, but harming others due to the difficulties in competing (as occurs in clothing). In addition, exchange delay generates a loss of generalized competitiveness of domestic production.
Source: Ambito
