The exchange tension was deepened on Tuesday. He Central Bank (BCRA) He sold reservations again in the official market, the financial dollars and the future dollar positions reheated. Everything occurred in the middle of a day marked by the statements of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputobefore the opening of the market, where He did not rule out modifications to the exchange scheme and opened the door to a free flotation scheme. The risks warned by the minister since his consultant in 2023.
Before uncertainty, The market sought coverage. The “Carry Trade” positions were closed of importers and exporters in the official market and The Central Bank had to sell US $215 million. Financial quotes closed more than 3% above and were cents of $ 1,300 despite the strong intervention of the monetary entity on the end of the wheel and All future dollar positions went up.
“Argentina is a country that can float, as long as they are given the macroeconomic conditions to do so”Caputo said in a television interview in the morning. Before the consultation of whether the Government will abandon the Rigid Administration of the exchange rate, this time it chose to claim the confidentiality of the agreement with the fund: “What we do will not affect the people,” he said briefly.
For the economist and financial analyst Christian Buterthe statement contrasts with the statements made by the economic team and the president himself just two weeks ago, when the scheme of “Crawling Peg” seemed unnegotiable: “They assured that the fund accepted this exchange rate regime,” he explained.
According to Buteler, For the discursive change of the government “he entered to play uncertainty” And “what you do to uncertainty is to cover you.”
Complications for the Government
Coverage demand effectively shot. “If the implicit futures are going up to the fees in pesos, the logical and expected, even with a headache, it is that reservations are lost,” he explained in his X account Gabriel Caamañoand finished: “Two options, Or you go out to intervene in futures to lower the implicit and/or upload the rates in pesos ”.
For the economist, if the government does not make any of those two decisions, it will continue to lose reservations. Buteler added that “The closing of ‘Carry Trade’ positions is a problem, because just as it made you buy many reservations, it can make you sell And this is being given before the arrival of the thick harvest and before the arrival of the IMF funds. ”
For Buteler, the Central Bank is now seen before the dilemma of how to use the few dollars it has. Says that Everything aims to prioritize the official market at the cost of increasing the gap.
The exchange scheme and the risk that Caputo warned in 2023
For Tomás RozembergExecutive Director of Context Investments, the cimbronazos of the last days “They are not yet a death wound to the Government Plan A”read: hold the exchange stability to the elections and try to leave the stock at the end of the year. Although he considers that Volatility puts pressure: “Now it is time to move the economic team to lower the tension. The most hand in hand is a blunt and clear announcement about the according to the IMF and the road map of the coming months”
Is the road map in debate? Caputo no longer defends the “Crawling Peg” of 1% And he returns on the debate of Argentina can go to a flotation. It implies that in this case the conditions are different from other moments in history in order in public accounts.
The funny thing is that the 2025 Minister Caputo contradicts the Caputo Consultor 2023, the year in which since the firm he shared with Santiago Bausili, he warned that, despite the fiscal balance, this scheme “is an extremely dangerous alternative” and that “it may not work”.
Source: Ambito
