The qualification agency anticipates that world growth will decelerate 2.3% in 2025, below the usual trend, compared to 2.9% projected by 2024.
Fitch Ratings significantly reduced its global growth forecasts due to the effects of the commercial war initiated by the administration of Donald Trump in the United States.
The qualification agency anticipates that the global growth will decelerate 2.3% in 2025, Below the usual trend, compared to 2.9% projected by 2024. This review implies a reduction of 0.3 percentage points and reflects Falls in both developed and emerging economies.
In addition, Fitch expects that Growth will remain weak in 2026standing at 2.2%. According to the agency, the increases in US tariffs since January are “surprising” both for their size and their rapidZ, which generated great uncertainty about the future magnitude of these increases.
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Fitch also warns about risks of greater escalation in the global trade war, pointing out that the US government has established policies to promote national manufacturing and Reduce commercial deficit by applying higher tariffs.
As for the US economy, Fitch estimates that the trade war will affect growthwill boost inflation and delay cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FED). The agency has adjusted its growth forecast by 2025 to 1.7% and 1.5% by 2026, Figures significantly lower than the 3% growth recorded in 2023 and 2024.
Impact of tariffs on the US economy
The increase in tariffs will also cause an increase in consumer prices in the US, It will reduce real wages and increase costs for companies, which in turn will impact business investment. In addition, reprisals from other countries will affect US exporters.
It is expected that the impact of tariff Fitch anticipates an interest rate cut this year And three more in 2026, as the economy slows down and tariff levels stabilize.
Source: Ambito
