Economy
Bundesbank expects slight growth in the first quarter
An upswing is not in sight for the time being. But the Bundesbank has hope that the German economy is getting something in the opening quarter. However, the prospects are very insecure – because of Trump.
Hope for the troubled German economy: After two years of recession, it could grow slightly again at least in the first quarter, the Bundesbank estimates. In January, both industry and construction had increased production, the central bank wrote in its latest monthly report. While the industry added from a weak year of the year, the construction industry benefited from a favorable weather at the beginning of the year.
On the other hand, there were no impulses of consumption of consumers, according to the Bundesbank. People took care of their job and stayed back with expenses. The service industry is likely to grow slightly in the opening quarter. “In the overall view, the economic output could thus increase slightly in the first quarter, although the economic basic tendency remains weak.”
Economists hope for valley sole
Using early indicators such as industrial production, economists had recently given hope that the German economy at least stabilized. Economists also expect noticeable growth impulses from the federal billions of debt of the federal government, which provides significantly higher expenditure on defense, infrastructure and climate protection. The mood among companies has also brightened up, as the increased economic index of the Mannheim Institute Zew recently showed.
However, the Bundesbank points out that the prospects for the German economy are currently “particularly insecure”. In this way, the United States’ restrictive and uncertain trade policy under President Donald Trump can dampen exports more than forecasts, “especially if far -reaching tariffs were implemented towards the EU”. In contrast, the financial package of the SPD and the Union of the economy can “give greater buoyancy in the coming years”.
Only expected mini growth for overall year
Overall, the prospects for the German economy remain cloudy. The IFO Institute has halved its forecast for 2025 for mini growth of 0.2 percent. Only for next year the IFO expects 0.8 percent more growth. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects growth of 0.4 percent for 2025.
The German economy has shrunk by 0.2 percent last year – it was the second recession year in a row for Europe’s largest economy. The Federal Statistical Office presented figures on economic output in the first quarter at the end of April.
dpa
Source: Stern
