Oil market: Opec+ turns on the oil tap

It has not been bad for consumers in the past few months: the raw material, which is with a decisive factor in the costs of driving or heating, has noticeably discount. The crude oil of the Brent, which is important for Europe, at times cost $ 82 per barrel (159 liters) in January and is now being traded around ten percent lower. And the prospects for further price return are not bad.

The eight oil export countries of the OPEC+ group have decided to let a support restriction expire from this Tuesday (April 1). The oil network of members of the organization of oil -lexporting countries (Opec) and other important conveyor countries such as Russia wants to turn up the oil tap more strongly. The reduction in daily production decided in 2023 by 2.2 million barrel is to be reversed gradually.

How does the oil price react?

The announcement of the Opec+to gradually return its voluntary funding cuts came in early March and was a big surprise for the oil markets. In the first reaction, oil prices fell significantly. However, the notations could recover in the course of March. However, if the Opec+ actually begins to turn up the oil tap more, this should also have an impact on prices. “The focus is likely to put the focus on the increasing oil supply and put a strain on the prices,” commented Barbara Lambrecht, raw material expert at Commerzbank.

What does that mean for heating oil?

Development is expected on the world market, which should also have an impact on the prices for heating oil with some time.

However, the gradual restriction of the Opec+ falls at a time when the heating period on the northern hemisphere ends and the price development should only be more focused in the focus of the consumer next autumn.

What effects does it have on the prices for petrol and diesel?

At the petrol stations, the decision of the Opec+to turn the oil tap a little more should only have an impact. “If the funding is expanded, this is definitely an impulse in the direction of cheaper oil prices,” said Christian Laberer, fuel market expert at ADAC.

However, the extended expansion has the potential to press the oil price by a few dollars and the fuel price by a few cent. But this has only been expected if the mineral oil companies pass on the price decline on the world market to consumers at the petrol stations. According to Laberer, the end of the heating season also plays a role: “Diesel drivers can currently hope that the end of the heating season will bring the -typical relaxation at the price of its fuel.”

What influence does Donald Trump have?

For the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President in January, crude oil from the North Sea variety Brent still cost about $ 82 per barrel. Then the price quickly fell to less than $ 70 by the beginning of March, which has to do with the aggressive customs policy of the new US government. The procedure described as “erratic” with ever new announcements, redemptions or shifts of tariffs ensures great uncertainty with a view to the global economy on the markets and thus burdens the demand for crude oil.

In addition, Trump has asked the Opec several times to reduce prices. Recently, however, the most recent tough procedure of the US government against the important funding country Iran has a strong effect on oil prices. Sanctions against the processing of Iranian oil in China had increased the oil prices in the past trading days.

What does this mean for Russia, which also belongs to the Opec+?

The income from the sale of crude oil plays a major role for Russia. Despite all attempts by the West to limit the income from the oil business, Russian oil deliveries to India or China remain one of the most important financial sources for the Kremlin. As the Bloomberg Economic Service reports, the crude oil deliveries from all Russian ports rose to 3.45 million barrels a day in March and have thus reached the highest value since last October.

US President Trump had made it clear that the oil prices had to be reduced to end the war in Ukraine. With a higher amount of funding from the decision of the Opec+, however, the Russian revenue from the oil business could increase as a whole. However, this is only possible if the price decline on the world market is limited due to the higher amount of funding.