In the government there is Optimism for the progress of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to define a new program of assistance. “The Technical Team of the Fund is holding consultations with the Executive Board of Directors,” confirmed IMF sources and completed that conversations about a new program are “advanced” and within the framework of their “usual internal processes.”
The response of the first Argentine president was “Thank you, president @emmanuelmacron. We deeply value his support and commitment from France to the Argentine people. We will continue working together, as true friends, to face the challenges and build shared opportunities in key sectors for the future”.
The authorities of France are not the only ones with which the Argentine government communicated. Without good there was no official confirmation, this medium could know that There were other dialogues that resulted in the support of nations such as Italy and the United Statesthe country that has the most weight in the Board in the Fund.
In this sense, the good personal relationship that President Milei has so much with the head of the Council of Ministers of Italy must be taken into account, Giorgia Meloni, as with the American president Donald Trump. In this way, Argentina is considered in principle, already It would have the support of the countries that gravitate the most in the background, that is, the US, China, Germany, Italy, France and Japan.
Trust at Casa Rosada
In the Casa Rosada, secrecy is maintained on the progress of conversations with the IMF and there is no talk of dates, but sources close to the negotiation indicate that “There is tranquility and confidence that profile a favorable resolution.” Although they recognize the impatience of the markets that led to the BCRA to have to sell currencies this Tuesday and it has already a loss of almost US $ 1,300 million in seven wheels.
After days of tension in the change market, operators expect definitions on how the official policy will follow regarding the exchange rate. Days ago the journalistic statements of the Minister of Economy generated uncertainty, Luis Caputowhen it did not ratify the continuity of the Crawling PEG scheme.
The future of The exchange policy would only be known when the agreement with the International Monetary Fund was finished. The President Javier Milei He said that he would be completed in mid -April, although in official media it is not ruled out that the date is run until the end of next month, but uncertainty could be cleared before when the technical agreement (Staff Agreement) is released.
In principle, this Thursday, the traditional press conference provided by the body’s spokeswoman is heldJulie Kozack and some type of definition is expected. “Perhaps it can be known when the Board will deal with the Argentine case,” was speculated in the City.
It is that, due to the IMF’s transparency policy, directory meetings are known in advance. Until the end of March there is no treatment of the new loan for Argentina. In the week of April 20, spring meetings are held where the Board of Directors does not analyze particular cases of a country.
Financing
Despite the volatility of the markets of these last days, there is no doubt that the new program will be signed and that will mean Important financing.
Argentina could aspire to at least US $ 13,000 million of the program initially agreed under the presidency of Mauricio Macri. Another way of estimating assistance is considering that the current government paid $ 15,000 million of external debt due to the impossibility of refinancing the maturities. In sum, It is estimated that the assistance would be around US $20,000 million.
It should be noted that the agreement with the Fund did not immediately include The stocks as explained on more than one occasion, The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo. Three conditions must be given for the release of the stocks are: that the inflation rate conveys to the international inflation rate, net of the devaluation rate; that the monetary base coincides with the broad monetary base and that the “stock” problem of the Central Bank is solved
Unlike what happened historically, the fiscal issue is the one that presents the least problems, since the Government has raised a more severe program than that originally required by the IMF. In addition, the official administration coincides with the guidelines of the structural reforms promoted by the body (labor, pension).
The discussions focus on the exchange issue. It is known that Fund technicians, according to previous documents, argue the need to accumulate reservations in the Central Bank, raise the need for the official exchange rate to be at a level of balance and that they do not like the dollar “Blend” (20% of exports that are settled by financial markets).
According to specialists, it is estimated that the new agreement with the IMF contemplates A scheme of exchange bands with the purpose of achieving contemplate the request of the fund of greater flexibility, but without disregarding the dollar as a guide, according to what the economic team thinks.
It should be taken into account that the multilateral agency in recent years changed its thinking and now allows official intervention in the change market, although in a limited way. Consequently, bounded bands that are expanding over time could be initially fixed.
Of course The Treasury Palace rules out that significant correction occurs in the exchange rate.
Source: Ambito
