The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoannounced that Argentina will receive US $20 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with the aim of increasing the gross reserves that, projected, will reach the level of the U $50,000 millionalthough still He did not confirm what amount will be free or how many and how the disbursements will be. In parallel confirmed negotiations with the IDB and the World Bank.
In dialogue with Scopethe economist Elena Alonsohe said that “The market will be calmer” But that the IMF’s board is still “To really see how much it is disbursed” Because, he said, it will not be for the total. “On the other hand that confirms that there will be no devaluation generates certainties”he expanded, so he believes that The market will stop pressing the exchange rate and even more when the first arrival of funds is completed.
During his announcement, Caputo said that this agreement is different from those made above because the fiscal adjustment has already “done it” and that the objective is to directly recapitize the asset of the BCRA. “With what is going to enter from IMF, more IDB, World Bank and CAF we will be around US $ 50,000 million of gross reserves” and then asked himself: How much is the monetary base? “At the official exchange rate, US $25,000 million while the free exchange rate, US $20,000 million.”
Subsequently, the Minister of Economy continued with his analysis: “The broad base, at the free exchange rate, is around US $ 35,000 million. The level of support that the Central Bank liabilities will have in a few days, that is, the weights, we have never had it. Not even, in convertibility. In addition, with fiscal surplus. “Reason that the official found to carry calm to the market that he reheated in recent weeks before the faults of certainties regarding the agreement with the IMF.
The market evaluates the ads made by Caputo
“A priori, the announcement seems to have been taken positively. Argentine bonds and actions rise abroad. Clearly, certainties are missing, and an indicator of this is that the MEP and the CCL are still firm. I think the most important thing, beyond the amount, will be to know what requirements the IMF will ask for exchange flexibility, “he told Scopethe economist Eric Paniagua.
Within that framework, the types of financial changes They go down, although they do it moderately: so CCL It is located at $ 1292.55, while the MEPat $ 1291.17. He Blue For its part, it continues with this trend but is sustained above a key level since it lies at $ 1,305. In that framework, future dollar contracts They fall along the entire curve but With little significant casualties: The “Price” market an official dollar at $ 1,207.5 in June.
“I believe that with fresh funds, when I arrive, You can calm the exchange front for a few monthsbut if that is going to be the government’s solution, it will last little, how it happened with disbursements at other times in our recent history, “economist Federico Gluistein told.
In this regard, he illustrated: “Generally, When currencies enter the immediate demand is usually increased but then stabilized Given the demonstration that there is a higher level of reserves. However, The announcement can help expectations but not currently twist And in that sense, I observe a change in pesos to dollars, disarming carry for securitization to those movements. “
Source: Ambito
