The economist anticipated that Caputo’s announcement It will recompose confidence in the economic program and that Argentina could return to volunteer debt markets when the country risk drops to 500 basic points.
“If the gross reservations (from the BCRA) go to $ 50,000 million is more than I expected. Now the fund does not want their dollars to be used so that the creditors of Argentina are running away. But I can’t use reservations for what they serve me, “he explained.
The IMF and the exchange intervention
In this way, he put repairs to eventuality that the US $20,000 can only use a part to be able to intervene in the markets. In fact, he estimated that in the scene of mass run against the peso, the government would need to have about US $ 35,000 million.
Arriazu, who is one of the government’s reference economists, considered that “The economic policy will not change ” and that the team of Caputo “will not accept a system like 2018”, in which exchange bands were applied and where the dollars of the fund could not be used to intervene.
“I I believe in an absolutely free system but I don’t believe in flotation while the dollar is the account unit ” For the Argentines, said the analyst, who argued that the evolution of the Exchange rate “is the variable that most influences inflation.”
For Arriazu, “the exchange band is a mistake”
Arriazu spoke within the framework of a talk with clients from Banco Galicia. In the same, he pointed out that the decline in reservations that the Central Bank is registering in the last weeks is due “To the loss of confidence”, which makes “the demand for money.”
However, he said that “There is no run (exchange) at the public level “ and, therefore, circumscribed the phenomenon to financial operators who are disarming Carry Trade positions “because They don’t know if they are going to change the exchange regime. “
The consultant considered that Argentina will be closing the agreement without major modifications in its program because it will have the support of the United States, China and France. In that sense, he stated that the IMF Staff “is beginning to understand” the nature of the problem. “If you want to leave freely float the dollar and raise interest rates there will be hyperinflation. The president likes the Band system For me it is a mistake, “he said.
However, in a context in which Arriazu exchange bands are applied, like other analysts, he let Gap between floor and ceiling could be small and its evolution could be at the levels similar to those currently with the official dollar rising to 1% monthly.
Source: Ambito
