The rhythm of the Inflation in the United States It remained stable in February and stood at 2.5% in one year, in line with the expectations of analysts, according to the PCE index published this Friday.
The underlying inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, recorded a rebound to 2.8% (compared to 2.7% in January)according to this index prepared by the Department of Commerce.
Analysts expected the PCE index to be in this range, according to the consensus published by Marketwatch, with the exception of the underlying inflation, higher than expected.
In February, only part of the new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump entered into force. Economists foresee that these increases from import rates will generate a sudden rebound in inflation.
Dan Siluk, Walnut Handerson portfolio manager, commented: “The main figures were adjusted to expectations, while the underlying revealed a slight but remarkable increase, one tenth above the expected, both in intermensual and interannual terms. This upward trend is accentuated by the fact that it is the second largest data of underlying inflation of the last 24 months. It shows the persistence of inflationary pressures. ”
“The resistance of the underlying inflation, persistently above the objective of the Federal Reserve, suggests that it may be necessary to emphasize the expectations of a change in monetary policy, which could affect the calendar of the adjustments of interest rates,” added the specialist.
And he finished: “While the market digests these figures, all eyes will be placed on April 2, Tariff Day, which represents the next event of significant risk for investors. Even then, it is expected that this will probably raise more questions than answers, adding another layer of uncertainty in an economic environment already complex.”
On Thursday, the president of the Boston Federal Reserve, Susan Collins, said that an increase in prices seemed “inevitable”, at least “in the short term.”
At the end of its last meeting of March 19, the FED (American Central Bank) decided to keep its rates while analyzing the effects of the Executive’s policies.
Its authorities also reduced their economic forecasts for the world’s largest economy. They estimated, for example, that at the end of 2025 inflation will be greater than the one they had predicted in December, 2.7% in a year.
The escalation of import tariffs, which has lately affected cars and their components, baffles markets on their possible impact on US companies and households, despite the fact that the economy was still booming in 2024.
Several indicators have shown that the confidence of the US consumer has collapsed since Trump’s return to the White House.
After a fall in January, attributed in part to the cold weather, consumption began to increase again in February (by 0.4% month to month), according to Friday’s publication.
Income grew faster than analysts foresee, at 0.8% month by month.
Source: Ambito
