As for the details of the loan, the former FMI official warned: “No one is very good to account,” he said in relation to the amount of free dollars that Argentina would access. “There are enough elements to determine it. We know that it is a four -year program, but we are not sure what the disbursement calendar is”, He said about it.
While the details of the agreement were not yet confirmed, Werner predicted two scenarios: “The first one is one that the government points. We know that in the Next four years Argentina has capital withdrawals with the fund of 14 billion dollars. So, to receive the US $20,000 million, there would be six. And of those six, A very high proportion would be given the IMF to Argentina during the year 2025 or early 2026″
On this point, he added: “Another way to make the account is: over the next three years, the Argentina will have very small disbursements and will need the background money not only to repair capital but also interests. That sum a scale then to U $ S15,000 million. In that case, five are left over, ”he explained during an interview on Radio Rivadavia.
Finally, he summarized: “One has to think then that this program with the IMF gives Argentina the Capital refinancing and interest of the next three years together with five or six billion additional dollars which will receive this year or the beginning of the next. It is not a tremendously high amount, but it serves”
Alejandro Werner questioned government exchange policy and predicted “little transcendental” changes
On the other hand, the former Fund for the Western Hemisphere referred to the exchange policy carried out by Javier Milei’s government And he anticipated that in the near future there will be “little transcendental” changes.
In another section of the interview, the former director of the International Monetary Fund for the Western Hemisphere predicted “little transcendental” modifications in the exchange policy – control to what the Government raises – that will bring the agreement to be apparent: “There is talk of a band. That band may have a Crawling PEG a little greater than 1%. Another possibility is that Crawl stays in 1% with a band that widens. Let’s think that if you get a Band of plus 4% and a 1% crawl could be widened from 4% to 6%. That would give space to the exchange rate, for example, to deprecate 6%. ”
In this regard, he said “concern” because there are still no details about these modifications: “They do not speak of changes in any policy. They must understand that to the market or offer a non -infinite but very large amount of resourcesor you tell him that you will follow consistent policies so that Central Bank does not have to intervene in the parallel market. Not fulfilling any of the two things this announcement, Nor does it manage to mitigate the pressure in the exchange market”
Werner asked two questions to answer in this area: “On the one hand, We have the question of whether the Milei Administration, in the background, shares the diagnosis of exchange delay. Publicly say no, but hey, it’s a conviction. The other question is more a strategic issue. What they really point to is get to the choice without having a rebound in inflation. That is why they are postponing all these adjustments until after the election. The idea seems to be a good electoral result, do the exercise with a congress much more aligned with Milei’s economic program, obtain support on budgetary issues, pensions, provinces, expand credit with the fund and release the headache. The problem, in any case, would be like this until November “.
Finally, he predicted that the next ten months will be “very complicated” for the country both for the legislative elections and for “a certain conviction of the government that its exchange policy does not need any modification.”
“The last president who had the daring to say that the Mexican weight was well precious was José López Portillo before the devaluation of ’82. The truth is that I would leave the Minister of Economy [Luis Caputo]which ends up being a fuse. If it is wrong or does not work, you can put another. But you can’t put another president, ”he said.
Source: Ambito
