Key Week. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputofaces a scenario of growing complexity where dollar has become the undisputed protagonist. The main fear, but under deaf, is that companies indebted in foreign currency, with liabilities that could exceed US $ 41,000 million, generate pressure on the reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA). This risk has been aggravated in recent weeks by a combination of factors: exchange uncertainty that led investors to disarm positions in pesos and a Currency importer career which drained key resources in a context of critical negotiations with the IMF.
The origin of this situation is in an economic policy that encouraged companies to take debt in dollars and then sell those currencies to the BCRA, allowing the treasure to access pesos without resorting to monetary issuance. However, this scheme has resulted in a significant threat. It is estimated that short -term commercial debt (maturities from 0 to 3 months) amounts. This total exceeds any calculation of reserves, weakened by a recent dynamic in which importers withdrew US $ 10,000 million in just 20 days, doubleing the purchases of February, while exporters reduced their liquidations of US $120 to 80 million daily, as reported Scope.
In an interview of the last hours, Luis Caputo tried to reassure the market, ensuring that the sale of US $ 1,640 million by the BCRA in the last two weeks responds to a temporary imbalance between exports and imports, not to artificial intervention. Attributed the caution of exporters waiting for advances in negotiations with the IMF, which promises a program of US $20 billion. This amount, he said, combined with additional loans from the World Bank, IDB and CAF, “would raise gross reserves to 50,000 million”, a level that the minister considers essential to clean up the central and guarantee monetary stability. However, the closure of March showed a 7.4% increase in the financial dollar “counted on Liqui”, reflecting a persistent distrust.
What is the “Carry Off”, the threat that gravitates strongly this week
Economist Álvarez Agis calls him “Carry off”and has put in check the “Crawling Peg” of 12.7% per year, which was lagging against rates in pesos of 35%. This is the sequence that goes from the doubts that aroused the future of exchange policy to the disarmament of positions, underway. Doubts about their sustainability triggered an avalanche of importers for dollars and a brake on exporter settlements, which revived inflation with two -digit increases in sectors such as mass construction and consumption. In addition, the growth of the private M3, which increased by 32% in real terms since April 2024, generates an excess of pesos that could feed a run if trust is broken, a scenario that Caputo seeks to avoid with external financial support and the promise of a solid currency.
The Salvage of the IMF, Luis Caputo and the dilemma of the “first disbursement”
The negotiations with the IMF are the pillar of the strategy of the minister, who emphasizes that the fiscal and monetary adjustment already exceeds the demands of the body, justifying a significant initial disbursement and free availability. This week, the World Bank president visit to Buenos Aires could add support ads, while the IDB also expressed support. However, The IMF could condition the agreement to a lower exchange interventiona measure that tension the current scheme and depends on the approval of key votes in the Board of Directors, scheduled for mid -April. The success of this plan, according to analysts, requires increasing liquid reserves and guaranteeing the sustainability of the exchange regime.
The business debt of US $ 41,000 million remains the core of Caputo’s fears. If devaluation expectations are consolidated, the disarmament of these liabilities could exceed the capacity of the BCRA, even with the support of the IMF. The minister projects a coverage change rate of $ 600 per dollar (or $ 950 with the broad monetary base), a level that considers historical thanks to the absence of deficit and emission. However, the disarmament of positions in pesos, with 6% increases in the MEP dollar and 6.12% in free during March, compared to a performance of 2.5% monthly in peso placements, evidence that investors anticipate turbulence.
The dollar and pressures, a mirror in the reserves of the Central Bank
The inflationary impact of “Carry Off” adds another layer of concern. Exchange uncertainty has already moved to prices, with significant remarks in mass consumption supplies and goods, while Luis Caputo insists that inflation will collapse in the long term. This optimism contrasts with a month of high seasonality that closed with the dollar in the center of the scene, driven by the caution of exporters and the avidity of importers. If the BCRA does not recover reservations soon, the pressure of the business debt could force an exchange adjustment, an outcome that the minister seeks to avoid at all costs.
Analysts warn that the BCRA has gone from buyer to a net seller of dollars, and the financial ones have aroused after months of lethargy. If the IMF does not overexpose beyond 54,000 million in 2018, Until September 2026 they could enter US $ 12,753 million (Deg through)an insufficient amount to cover business debt without structural reforms. The approval of the agreement and the clarity on the Blend dollar and the intervention in the gap will be key to accumulate reserves and reduce the country risk, which in March rose 2.2%, although the S&P Merval resisted with an increase of 7.8%.
The contrast between Luis Caputo’s vision and market dynamics is remarkable. The minister defends a solid program, but “Carry Off” and business debt suggest that stability depends on external factors: The trust of economic agents and the speed of international financial support. With net reserves in negative terrain, the BCRA faces a dilemma: intervene to contain the dollar, spending scarce currencies, or allowing a depreciation that could stabilize foreign trade, but at the expense of more inflation. The margin of error is narrow.
In conclusion, Luis Caputo navigates an economic storm where the debt of US $ 41,000 million, the “Carry Off” and exchange uncertainty are convergent challenges. His commitment to IMF and fiscal discipline seeks to gain time, but the rise in financial dollars and The disarmament of positions in pesos They reflect an expectant market. With the BCRA in a vulnerable position, success will depend on aligning external resources with a confidence that, for now, remains elusive in a historically adverse context for the Argentine economy.
Source: Ambito
