The BCRA published the March REM, made before the tariff boom established by the US, which shook the economies of the world.
The City’s Gurús worsened their inflation projections for the second consecutive month. The correction happened before, even from the “boom” of tariffs established by Donald Trump, who shook the markets and threatens to unleash a war of coins, which could add even more firewood to the fire to the exchange policy of the Argentine government.
This Monday the Central Bank (BCRA) published its survey of market expectations (REM) carried out in March, in which 39 consultants, research centers and banks participated. The median estimates showed an expected price increase of 2.6% for Marchwhen in the previous REM, 2.2%was expected.
The private sector also corrected the forecasts for the following months. Thus, The inflation planned by 2025 was at 27.5%4.2 percentage points (pp) above the previous estimate, while for the next two months the figure was 24.5% (+2.3 pp).
Dollar
As for the official exchange rate, expectations also adjusted up. By the end of 2025 the market awaits a dollar to $ 1,253, which would imply a rise of 22.8%, 7.6 percentage points (pp) or almost $ 78 more compared to the previous REM.
On the other hand, the median of the Nominal exchange rate projections of the REM was $ 1,080 per dollar for the average of April 2025 which would imply an average monthly rise of 1% of exchange parity. According to the set of participants of the REM, this exchange depreciation rhythm would be sustained throughout the monthly horizon surveyed. For the Top 10 the expected average exchange rate for April is $ 1,097.
GDP
In the survey of March, the set of ReM analysts estimated that the GDP adjusted by seasonality between January and March grew 1.5% quarterly compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 (+0.4 pp with respect to the previous REM) and that it will do so at a rate of 0.6% and 0.8% in the next two quarters of 2025.
For all 2025 they expect on average a real GDP level 5% higher than the average of 2024 (0.2 pp more of increase with respect to the previous REM).
Unemployment
The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of the year was estimated at 7.0% of the economically active population (-0.3 pp than the previous REM). The set of ReM participants expects an unemployment rate of 6.5% for the last quarter of 2025 (-0.3 pp compared to the previous REM).
Source: Ambito
