The forecast reflects a shift in the US soybean sector, as demand for biofuel made from oils and processed meal for cattle feed rises, cooling Chinese demand for imports.
Soybean ending stocks for the 2021/22 marketing year were set at 325 million bushels, the USDA said in its monthly report, that is, 40 million less than the January government outlook, but more than the average market forecast of 310 million.
Diminishing crop prospects in South America had fueled expectations that top buyer China would become more reliant on the United States in 2022. A flurry of trade in the United States in recent weeks fueled a rally in soybean prices to an eight-month high.
But the USDA lowered its forecast for China’s soybean imports to 97 million tons from 100 million. “The Chinese import pie is shrinking due to higher prices,” said Brian Basting, analyst at Advance Trading. “The composition of the cake is still being determined and could change quite a bit.”
Soybean futures in Chicago trimmed their gains after the release of the report.
Screenings in South America
Soybean harvest prospects in Brazil, the world’s leading producer and exporter of the oilseed, were cut to 134 million tons from 139 million, in line with market expectations.
The USDA also lowered its forecast for production in Argentina, another key world supplier, to 45 million tons from 46.50 million, slightly above the average of analyst estimates.
The US soybean export outlook was unchanged at 2.05 billion bushels. Forecast use by the crushing industry rose 25 million bushels to 2.215 million
Source: Ambito
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