The signatures begin to change their projections for this year. They expect more inflation and a lower rebound of activity. PXQ, by Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, warns that the highest risk of run is in the department of the private sector in foreign trade.
The Tariff war that Donald Trump launched can be transformed into a black swan for the Argentine economy. At the beginning of the year the consultants made their bets: Inflation, activity, dollar. But now the context changed, the United States launched a rise in unprecedented tariffs and those projections must be reviewed. More than one firm recognized this medium that they are “recalculating” at this time at this point could be considered a black swan.
For the PXQ consultant, from Emmanuel Álvarez Agisthe new scenario appears as a “Perfect storm”: uncertainty for the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)less appetite of investors due to risk, changes in geopolitics and more pressure for the strategy of strengthening weight. “The greatest threat of run comes from the disappointment of the private sector related to foreign trade,” warns the former Minister of Economy.
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For Agis’s consultant, to the uncertainty that previously sowed the delay in closing the agreement with the IMF, there is now an international negative shock that could even trigger a global war of currencies.
The former Minister of Economy ensures that The events find Javier Milei as a countermarket: “Opening in a world that closes is a lousy strategy, appreciation within the framework of a war of currencies, or speak,” says the text that circulated during this week. For Álvarez Agis, the new international scenario will test the “Trade Off” between government ideology and pragmatism.
Expectations deteriorate
The times accelerated this Tuesday. The IMF staff announced the agreement at the technical level with Argentina And the Board of Directors would be willing to deal with the Argentine program next Friday. The government insists on concentrating most of the funds on the first disbursement. The transcended speak of eNTRE U $ S10,000 YU $ S12,000 million. But the market pulse intuits that the administration of Javier Milei must pay costs.
The Central Bank sold dollars again in the market Officer, reservations fell U $ S134 million and financial dollars climbed hard, more than $ 50 in two days. Knowing the background of the fund, the equation that many in the market are that the more fresh silver it is requested, the more considerable the exchange correction should be.
For PXQ, “the perfect storm” can fully impact key variables for the electoral process: “To anticipate an economy with low inflation, rising activity and controlled gap we could go to one in which the depreciation of the parallel You can reverse the decrease in inflation and this, in turn, hurt the activity. ”
The greatest threat to the dollar
The report that PXQ turned to its clients brings a strong warning: “The greatest threat of run comes from the disappointment of the private sector related to foreign trade, which had been encouraged by the ‘Carry Trade’ scheme” “. Days ago, the same consultant reported that the private commercial debt with expiration date between 0 and 3 months amounts to AU $ 27.4 billion.
Private debt in dollars is the mechanism used by the Central Bank in recent months to accumulate dollars. Since October, the stock increased by US $ 7,000 million to US $ 13,000 million according to Eco Go data. This liability grew in the heat of a exchange scheme that, given the imminence of the definitions of the International Monetary FundHe is in doubt.
Source: Ambito
