“There is no doubt, the tariffs that Donald Trump applies are a geopolitical weapon and China is the enemy,” Diplomatic sources point out after the decision of the US president to re -elevate the rates for imports of the Asian giant while suspending the “reciprocal tariffs” over other countries.
“On the contrary, and considering that More than 75 countries have called representatives from the United States, and that these countries have not taken reprisals In no way against the United States, at my instances, I have authorized a 90 -day pause and a substantially reduced reciprocal tariff during this period, 10%, Also with immediate effect, “Trump published on social networks.
In the midst of the battle, the Republican Administration celebrated the decision of the chips manufacturing giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. which plans to invest US $ 100,000 million in the USaccording to Trump, in addition to the US $ 65,000 million in investments that the company had previously announced
Recoil
In the last two decades the United States gave way to China leadership in world trade in merchandiseaccording to a study of Ehsan Soltani Published in the Visual Capitalist site.
In 2000, US trade amounted to $ 2 billion, more than four times the US $ 474,000 million from China. At that time, China was the main commercial partner of only a few countries, including Cuba, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Mongolia, North Korea, Oman, Sudan, Tanzania and Vietnam.
Between 2000 and 2024, the United States trade increased 167% -an annual growth rate composed of 4.2% -, while China’s trade rose 1,200% -11.3% annual -exceeding the United States in 2012.
In 2024, Total trade reached US $ 5.3 billion for the US and US $ 6.2 billion for China -17% more.
China is now the dominant commercial partner of most of Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, South America and Africa.
Looking ahead, the report expects the Asian giant to continue deepening its relationships with the emerging markets, importing fuels, minerals and agricultural products and exporting manufactured products.
Games
“What Trump intends is to distance China from Russia because the alliance between these two countries is the energy-production alliance, it is ultimately the one that will prevail”according to international analysts.
They add in this regard that in addition to the string of tariffs between the US and China, the conflict moves to other spheres. So, The Chinese are selling American treasure bonds -active in which a good part of their reserves have invested.
“The game does not end here, much less. This is the beginning”they evaluate. In this sense, they make differences between President Trump’s strategies and his pair Xi Jinping. They explain: “In the West, chess and Trump are played follow this logic eating pieces to try to win the game, instead the Chinese practice Go, A positioning game in which the enemy is sought. The Chinese are going to bet on the long term and have to win, because they have a large domestic market, in addition to having conquered much of Europe and Asia. ”
Reaction
The Chinese strategy also contemplates observing the reactions that the policies of the Republican leader are causing in the US. In this sense, a publication that made on social networks did not go unnoticed William Ackmanan American billionaire manager of founding coverage funds Pershing Square Capital Managementwhich supported Trump in the presidential elections of 2024.
“The bond yields are upwards and the dollar is depreciating. These are not indicators of a successful monetary policy,” he said. He then pointed out that he was receiving an increasing amount of emails from small businesses with which he does business or has invested that they express their fear of not being able to transfer the increase in costs to its clients that implies the tariff and will suffer severely negative consequences. ”
ACKMAN sets as an example a startup that elaborates cold coffeewho complains about him 50% increase in the cost of glass bottles (from China), the 26% rise in the cost of the Chai (from India) and 10% in the cost of coffee (from Ethiopia, Peru and Canada).
And he adds that “What is particularly worrying is the sudden and generalized inclusion of coffee and tea in US tariffs, which reverts a long -standing precedent that goes back to the McKinley tariff of 1890, which eliminated tariffs on these essential products. ”
Just to the president William McKinley It is known as “Tariff Man”, which applied tariffs on imports of the order of 28% and Trump is not far behind with an average around 24%
He concludes pointing out that “unlike many industries, There is no solution for coffee relocation. USA It simply does not cultivate coffee at a commercial scale, and national tea production is practically non -existent. There is no viable or short -term national alternative. ”
This dispute that has the world as a spectator is not harmless. A 2018 Fed report estimated that for the US an increase of 1% in tariffs reduces GDP by 0.14%. If the effective rise in tariffs is located at 19% -20%, the impact could be around 2.8% of GDP and an increase of up to 1.5% in inflation in the next 24-32 months.
Source: Ambito
