Anywaythe market seems to have assumed that, sooner rather than later, the exchange scheme will come to an end. On the one hand, due to the requirement of the IMF of stopping the bleeding of reserves, nourishing the coffers of the Central Bank and loosening with the appreciation of the exchange rate. On the other, by the statements of Minister Luis Caputo, who weeks ago acknowledged that there would be a new scheme that could not make known for the confidentiality of the negotiations.
Despite the announcement of a new program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for US $20,000 million, The technical details of the agreement remain an unknown for analysts. In particular, key questions arise about the real impact of the funds, the future exchange policy and the role that the Central Bank will have in this scheme.
How much money will it really arrive?
One of the main doubts revolves around how much of the U $20,000 million announced correspond to net resources. According to estimates Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI)if the capital payments that Argentina must make to the IMF itself until April 2029 (about US $14,400 million) are discounted, the Fresh funds available would be only US $ 5,600 million.
The economist Lorena Giorgio It coincided with this look: “That a program for US $ 20,000 million is closed does not imply by chance that the IMF disburse that amount.” Giorgio projected that IMF payments in the next four years would add US $ 15,000 million, so the real increase in the exposure of the agency with Argentina would be close to U $ S5,000 million.
Another point under discussion is the exchange policy that will accompany the agreement. Although there are no official details, The possibility of sustaining the “Crawling Peg” scheme – gradual monthly values - or its replacement for flotation bands is still on the tableas well as the elimination of the scheme of Blend dollarwhich today allows exporters to liquidate 20% of foreign exchange in the financial market.
From ADCAPThey highlighted the lack of clarity with respect to whether the exchange rate will be modified or if the current microdevaluations strategy will be maintained. To this is added the uncertainty about If the Blend dollar will continue or if you will advance towards a freer exchange rate.
According to UBSthe agreement with the IMF draws a roadmap to the elimination of exchange rate and a gradual transition to a regime of greater flexibility. This vision is in line with previous statements from the president Javier Mileiwho manifested in favor of a scheme of exchange flotation.
Although it is presented as a key support, The new agreement with the IMF does not resolve on its own the structural challenges of the Argentine economy. From the Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank They warned that funds would barely reach to cover public debt matches over the next 12 months.
The economist Miguel Kiguel He also expressed concern about the lack of clarity: “It is not understood how much the initial disbursement will be.” Kristalina Georgieva said that the request for a first shipment of 40% of the total is “reasonable”, that is, US $ 8,000 million, but in the government they seek to be superior.
Source: Ambito
