The price of food and drinkswhich usually accompanies the value of parallel dollars, can complicate the aspiration of the government of lower inflation at lower levels of 2% monthly.
Is that, if the data of the second week of April are taken, the price of that segment of the CPI is growing at a level monthly of 4%, which is the highest since September 2024. If the increase curve is analyzed from that time, it shows A “V” with an apartment in January 2025.
It is understood that the price of food and drinks is closely related to the parallel dollars value. The extension of the gap with the officer, and the distrust of the markets for a regime change (which will be confirmed with the agreement with the IMF), was pressing on prices.
It is what analysts They call “price mattress” in the face of a potential devaluation That, in this case, it would be quite bounded yet. Until February, the price increase was located at 2% for four weeks, and then since March they glued a 1 point jump.
Food inflation and dollar instability
The data correspond to the consultant Labor, Capital and Grouth (LCG) for the second week of April, at a time when the United States announced its change in commercial policy against the world and in which the risk of Argentina was enhanced at 1000 points levels.
According to the LCG report, The food rose in the second week of April 0.9% compared to the previous week, the accumulated of the last four weeks reached 4.6% and the average of those four weeks is 3.9%.
In that period, the meat rose 7.5%; dairy and eggs, 5.3%; condiments, 4.7%; and drinks, 4%. All this will impact the general April consumer price index that can hardly show lower data than March, which this afternoon will publish INDEC.
How will prices evolution continue?
In this way, some analysts assume that The anticipation made by President Javier Milei about that 2% of CPI could be drilled in May, could be further delayed.
It must also be taken into account that yes, as a result of the agreement with the IMF, The government has to make a correction to the official dollar (the rumor is that it could be 5%) That can be projected on the inflation of the following months.
In the reverse sense, if the agreement manages to stop the anxiety of the markets and Stabilize the price of the dollar, so it is likely to play in favor.
Source: Ambito
