Without a solid exchange strategy and long -term political agreements, the current economic balance runs the risk of crumbling as fast as it was built.
The economist Emmanuel Álvarez Agis launched a blunt warning about the fragility of the economic scheme current if it is not possible to sustain a exchange policy consistent in the medium term. At a time when The dollar Informal shows a clear bullish trend and investors seek to protect against possible shocks, Álvarez Agis stressed that the exchange rate is the main thermometer of imbalances that the Argentine economy still drags.
The former Minister of Economy said that The dollar It is not simply an economic variable, but a synthesis of the country’s structural problems. “The dollar value reflects how much disorder we still do. When it is triggered, it is a sign that we are in deep problems; When artificially falls, it gives the feeling of prosperity, even if it is momentary”, He described rawly.
In that sense, the founder of the consultant PXQ He warned about the deceptive effects of a cheap official dollar, which could be encouraging a recovery of consumption that does not support solid bases. “We go from six months of hard adjustment to a relief phase, where many people consume, travel or import products at low cost. But if that relief is mounted on a exchange delay, it can become unsustainable,” he said during a radio interview with you.
According to your analysis, The transitory success of the libertarian economic program rests largely in the use of the dollar as an anti -inflationary anchor. This tool, although effective in the short term to stop the price rise and reactivate the activity, entails a latent risk: the loss of reserves. “You cannot keep a cheap dollar without dollars in the Central Bank. The countries that applied this type of strategy had extraordinary income, either due to commodities, oil or favorable geopolitics. Argentina does not have that privilege, ”he said.
Consumption, dollar and reservations
Álvarez Agis also reflected on the structural difficulty to solve the background exchange problem. In his opinion, the main obstacle is not a technical but political. “The exchange rate is not ordered from one day to the next. It is a long process, which can take a decade, and for that continuity is needed in public policies and lasting agreements. But in Argentina that does not happen, because nobody wants to leave the fruits of the effort to a future government,” he said.
False dollars
To illustrate his point, he cited Israel’s case in the 1980s, where a deep economic crisis led to the construction of consensus between confronted sectors. “They implemented a drastic plan, with high initial costs, but sustained and gave them results. In our country there was never that maturity to design a shared course,” he lamented.
Finally, Álvarez Agis said that while the electoral logic of gaining time persists and avoiding the political cost of economic sincere, it will be difficult to face a lasting solution. “A high dollar is unpopular, but necessary. Until we are willing to assume that and think in the long term, we will continue to repeat the same story,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
