World trade
WTO chief economist: USA only stands for 13 percent of all imports
Donald Trump’s customs offensive is likely to reverse world trade. The world trade organization expects great losses. According to WTO chef economist Ossa, the focus must now be on China.
The chief economist of the World Trade Organization WTO, Ralph Ossa, sees a wake-up call for Europe and the world in the US government’s customs policy. “As important as the United States are, they only make up 13 percent of global imports, that is, 87 percent of imports are in the rest of the world,” Ossa told Bayerischer Rundfunk (Bavaria 2). “That is why it is now important to protect this and that’s exactly what is important for Europe, because of course we want to export to America, but it is important that the rest of the world also holds together.”
According to the WTO chef economist, the dashes in world trade are greatest in North America, i.e. in the USA, Canada and Mexico. “There is already an enormous effect.”
Where do China’s exports flock?
It is now important to react to the detour of trade currents: China should deliver many goods that would otherwise have exported to the USA. “I think it is now, very central, that these deflection effects are being used cooperatively so that this conflict does not escalate further,” said Ossa.
The high US tariffs on Chinese products in many countries are concerned about competition from the Far East. The WTO expects Chinese exports to Europe to grow by six percent this year. On the other hand, there are new export opportunities to the USA if significantly fewer textiles, clothing and electrical appliances from China are imported there.
The WTO assumes that bilateral trade between the China and the USA will collapse by a good 80 percent, Ossa also said on Deutschlandfunk. “The reason why this is not so significant on world trade is that China and the USA, i.e. bilateral trade between these two countries, are only about 3 percent of world trade.”
The WTO had only warned on Wednesday before a decline in the world trade due to the customs dispute. She expects the volume of world trade to shrink by 0.2 percent this year – in the worst case by 1.5 percent. The WTO reduced its forecast for global economic output to 2.2 percent, after 2.8 percent, as expected before US customs duties.
WTO trade outlook from April 2024
dpa
Source: Stern
