The consultant and economist Marina Dal Poggetto pronounced on the impact of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced this Friday. For her, the government’s decision occurs in the midst of a “very complex financial dynamic.”
“The government presents a change of exchange regime in the middle of a very complex financial dynamic as if it were a victorywhen the scheme aimed at trying the exchange rate as anchored as possible to reach the elections, “he said.
For Marina Dal Poggetto, the regime change will entail “a degree of intervention of the BCRA at the beginning”
From what was announced, Dal Poggetto interprets it as the elimination of the Blend dollar and a demand remove to the financial market. Regarding the system of bands between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400, he said that “they are very wide because of the need to maintain the narrative that it will not be devalued.”
“The truth is that if you are going to buy only on the band of the band, you will never buy dollars. And this closes if the Central Bank starts buying dollars. The probability that he does, with a balance between the dollar and the interest rate, is high “, He pointed in dialogue with Radio with you.
But to achieve this, “a degree of intervention at the beginning”, in relation to the BCRA, will be needed. To the extent that this balance appears, “the dollars probably appear,” but doubts that they are below $ 1,000.
The economist also indicated that the decision on the stocks It is a more flexible scheme but with “the problem of floating in electoral year with few reservations”. This is “to a huge amount of pesos with a concentration of maturities in very large pesos.”
“To make this work, you need to have some access to credit and start refinancing debt maturities. If you keep paying the debt maturity in cash, at some point you will have a problem, “he added.
For Dal Poggetto “the stocks are not getting out but they are giving greater flexibility to human people and companies. The stocks remains quite in tune, they do give greater flexibility in payments and imports” and in parallel ‘they turn demand that previously went to the dollar counted with liquidation, to the officer’.
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He Javier Milei government announced his new exchange policy: From next week, The restrictions will be lifted and a flotation scheme between bands from $ 1,000 to $ 1,400 pesos per dollar will be implemented.
In addition, at the beginning of the “phase 3 of the economic program”, the libertarian management also reported that the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) will receive more than US $23,000 million in the remainder of the year.
Thus, as anticipated, as of Monday, April 14, human people will no longer have quantitative restrictions for buy dollars at the official exchange rate for the first time in 6 years. The new exchange scheme proposes a near future with modifications in the Argentine economy.
Source: Ambito
