The opinion of economists about the departure of the stocks
The strong measures of the government generated more cautious or more optimistic speeches but, in general, a positive reading of the flexibility of exchange restrictions was reflected. However, the impact that this decision can have on the economy is, for the moment, uncertain.
The specialist in International Trade, Marcelo Elizondohe said that this was “A very successful decision” of the management of Milei. In this regard, he analyzed: “The previous regime of the stocks, the one of the fixed exchange rate below the market exchange rates in the exchange gap that was also being contained through interventions of the Central Bank that were making it lose currencies to the BCRA. That previous regime was already under wear that made exporters to those who are referring to differ to the liquidation of their exports, so that this contributed to a vicious circle to generate less dollars. “
For his part, the economist and formerly of the National Bank, Carlos Melconian, said the decision “It was an urgent change“On the part of the government.” How I was, I was going to a crisis. The central cannot lose US $ 5,000 million per quarter and reservations will be less than US $ 7,000 million. I always said it was a very good state for the numbers that I saw. “
“Here comes, macroeconomically speaking, a resounding change. The resounding change occurs because otherwise the background did not come out, “the former Banco Nación deepened.
In addition, Melconian said that it coincides “in the flexibility of controls” although he later analyzed that “There was no social demand for, which sells as titles, leaving the stocks.” Finally, he added that “the CEPO still lacks that corporations have exchange freedom, that they have them but not.”
For its part, The executive director of Ecogo, Marina Dal Poggetto, Se showed tougher and about the measure said: “We agree that you are not leaving the stocks, you are giving greater flexibility. The stocks remains quite in tune.”
In his analysis, Dal Poggetto said that this measure “continues the process of normalization of capital controls”, although he showed that, in order to achieve such normalization, they still have more decisions.
The opinion of economists about the dollar and a devaluation
When consulted by a possible devaluation and a prediction on the value of the dollar for Monday opening, The economist and director of the consultant Invecq, Santiago Bulat He explained: “The truth is not known, that is, what needs to be expected is Monday to see if there is devaluation or not. What begins to see is a freer market now.”
“Now the dollar will be able to move between bands, 1100 and 1400, and that goal will be opened and would reach December to 1500 the upper band already 900 and the inferiorr. Between that he will be able float“He detailed about the government measure.
On the possible impact that the exchange rate change can have from next week, Bulat delved: “When Macri put the bands, in the first instance the dollar went to the band below, it is as if now I tell you that the dollar is going to 1000 more than 1400. If that happened, we would be talking about I believe less impact on prices. Now it is the question is If you go to the other sideif you accommodate closer to where the MEP or the CCL was working at 1300 and peak. That maximum, up to 1400, could be a devaluation of 30%. “
Dollar reservations devaluation
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For his part, Melconian also does not risk making an exact prediction but he explained what rank could the dollar value open on Monday. “If we know there is a bandita inside the band. The bandita inside the Banda was the floor of the MEP dollar, which was 1150 on Friday and the parallel roof, which was 1380that was the bandita inside the band prevailing on Friday, “he explained.
The opinion of economists on the agreement with the IMF
The announcement of the Government of the Cepo exit was was a Direct consequence of the approval of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the new agreement with Argentina. In this way, and during the next week, the agency will disburse US $1,000 million as part of the program.
“You couldn’t make the regime change without having the agreement with the Fund,” said Dal Poggetto. In addition, the economist recalled that the negotiations expanded and “In the middle you You put $ 2,500 million“
For Balut, this is a different agreement to the previous ones that the country had with the financial institution since “this government went to the fund already having made an adjustment.” Because of this, according to the economist Today the IMF “is not asking much more” to the Argentine economic program to ensure subsequent disbursements. “It seems to me that there is a big difference that we can give the right that may be different by the issue that they are facing this with fiscal surplus.”
For his part, Melconian analyzed: “Here the punching financial tranquility I pay the outside with this new armor for calling it in some way, in such a way that if you can use it, you guaranteed payments from this year. “
In this scenario, Melconian predicted that the success in this program in Argentina is in which the country “He manages to go out to the market to place a bonus to pay the fund.”
The opinion of economists about inflation
The movements that the exchange rate may have from next Monday keep the Argentines in suspense. However, various economists remained cautious when it comes to comment that will happen with inflation. It should be noted that, according to the last measurement of INDEC, The March CPI showed an acceleration and was 3.7%.
“If you go up Monday, I believe that some we will have in prices and is held there for the next few weeks. How much is it difficult to know,” Bulat explained.
For his part, the former Banco Nación said that inflation “is not 3.7%” but is located in the range of “2.2%” And, he explained that this new exchange scenario of Milei’s management leads to “another dollar, another inflation and another level of activity.” In this sense, he predicted: “A new interest rate, a new inflation rate, a new exchange rate value, which you have resentful, can affect the level of activity. “
Source: Ambito
