From your official social network XGuzmán spread an extensive analysis entitled: “More debt to the IMF: What will happen from Monday and what does it mean for you?”where he explained how the accelerated sale of International reserves by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA)added to an exchange policy that defined as unsustainable, pushed the country towards a critical situation.
What did Martín Guzmán say
The economist remarked that, since the end of 2023the government opted for a strategy known as “exchange anchor”, Which consisted of maintaining artificially under the value of the official dollar with the aim of curbing inflation. This measure, according to Guzmán, worked for a while, but generated incentives for financial speculators to apply one”Financial bicycle”, Taking advantage of the difference between interest rates in pesos and the evolution of the exchange rate.
“The bike chain was oxidizing“Guzmán said, referring to the exhaustion of that scheme. He argued that speculation caused the government to be forced to sell dollars of the reserves to contain the exchange gapsituation that worsened the inflationary front and further weakened the confidence in the economic plan of Milei.
He also pointed out that the new loan of U $ S15,000 million The IMF, announced days ago, does not point to productive investments, but to sustain an economy that relies on external indebtedness.
“A new bicycle chain”, He said, warning that this injection of funds will serve to pay those who get rid of assets in pesos, while the real cost will be assumed by the average and low sectors of the population.
In his diagnosis, Guzmán explained that the BCRA reached negative net reserveswhich implies that the country no longer has its own liquid resources and, therefore, “had to lend the dollars that belong to savings of the Argentines “to try stop the deterioration ofl weight. This maneuver, according to its vision, leaves the country more exposed to future financial pressures.
What will happen from Monday
In the face of what may happen in the next few days, Guzmán He anticipated that the immediate impact will be reflected on Mondaywith the reopening of markets.
Warned that if operators receive weakness in official measures, the price of the Official dollar could be shot until the values of the CCL dollar or the MEP dollar. Such a situation would have direct consequences on prices and on the purchasing power of salaries.
For the former minister, this crisis is not only technical or conjunctural. He pointed out that the social effects will be deep and durable: “The majority of the population will be the one who pays the price of this situation”He said.
And he added that the new external indebtedness will translate into more economic adjustmentless real income for workers and greater fragility for the national economy.
In this way, Guzmán marked Differences with the current administration And he questioned the viability of his economic plan, which, according to his analysis, prioritizes keeping calm exchange at any cost, even if that implies mortgaging the country’s financial future.
Source: Ambito
