Exporters put a $ 1,200 floor to the new dollar that will operate from this Monday. They do it when thinking about the liquidation of the thick harvest and the remnants of the previous campaign. The value follows from a jump in the price they were receiving until Friday by the implicit exchange rate that 20% of its exports in the financial markets arose to overturnalthough they hope that it is even above that level. The field celebrated the end of the stocks, but expects the currency to position itself closer to the ceiling: “In the lower part of the band, no one is going to liquidate,” a reference in the sector told this media.
The government announced The departure of the stocks and a deep modification in the exchange rate regime. As of this Monday, the dollars are unified and the official market will operate with bands between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400. Below the lower limit, the Central Bank must buy currencies and above you can sell them.
Then, there are controversies between the government’s version and that of the IMF. In an official document entitled “Start of phase 3 of the economic program with exchange flexibility and flotation between bands”, the monetary entity ensures that it will intervene within the bands with sale of dollars “To morigize unusual volatility”on the other hand, the report of the Technical Personnel of the Fund says that the BCRA can only do so to buy and accumulate reservations.
In any case, the turn in what until now was the most discussed leg of the economic plan, It goes in line with what the bulk of the Argentine business sectors has been asking for.
The dollar that exporters expect
Like other sectors, the field celebrated the measure. The president of the Rural Society Nicolás Pino said that “Open a new horizon for the agricultural sector”the Argentine Agroindustrial Council stressed that “on the correct path to allow agro -export growth” and Coninagro stressed that “it will help reduce the uncertainty that affects various productive sectors.”
However, exporters already look sideways at the bands where the dollar will move: “The exchange rate should be moving in the closest to the possible roofwhat will have to be seen is whether the Central Bank is going to die that rise effect and how it will, ”said an experienced reference from the sector to scope.
On this point, he considered that to accelerate the income of currencies it will be essential that the exchange rate find a balance at some stability point above $ 1,130 or $ 1,150the quotes of the Blend dollar of recent days
“At those prices nobody sold, set what happened in the change market this month”Said a cereal. “Less than $ 1,200 I see very difficult for someone to liquidate,” synthesized another entrepreneur in the field.
Are sales reactivated?
Since mid -March, when Minister Luis Caputo questioned the exchange scheme, LThe sales of grains were virtually paralyzed. In the sector they trust that the new scheme unlocking the operation. But they say that trust in the program will be fundamental.
For the government it will be a complex balance. Between getting the quotation not to automatically shoot at the band’s top to avoid another inflationary jump, avoid discretionary interventions to give credibility to the new scheme and maintain a competitive dollar so that sellers do not run from the wheel like recent weeks.
In the field there is another weighing factor: lTEMPORARY OF REETENCIONES expires on June 30those that liquidate after that date would remain without the benefit of seven percentage points for soybeans. At least, that consists of the papers, for now.
Source: Ambito
