The economist highlighted the first financial day and the role of the BCRA with the new exchange scheme, but warns that the bands may be late with respect to inflation.
For the economist Orlando Ferreres, A first analysis of the impact of the new exchange model that began to govern this Monday, shows that The dollar moved around the values presumed by the market, although this is not enough to define the success of the model. In his opinion, “Inflation is going to be somewhat larger and the exchange rate will be a bit behind, but at the time of the October elections there will be little dose of inflation and the government will be calmer with the exchange rate that exists at that time.”
In turn, the head of OJF & Asociados, assures that Exporters will act with caution Before starting to liquidate their exports and, in reality, the equilibrium exchange rate is in a higher area than the band arranged: this month is at $ 1,712 per dollar. Next, the dialogue with who was Deputy Minister of Economy in 1989.
Journalist: What is your first impression on opening the markets on the first day of the new exchange scheme?
Orlando Ferreres: I think the thing is going well, but that some inflation will generate this variation of the exchange ratethat we We calculate in 2.9% for April, and more or less 3% for the month of Mayreturning to the previous numbers of 2% from June. Many fluctuations, but this Monday does not serve to make the basis of all calculations, just the other Monday will be calmer the entire market.
Q.: With the expectation of inflation by 2025, can the bands get late?
OF: Inflation is going to be a little larger and the exchange rate will be a bit backward, but at the time of the October elections there will be little dose of inflation and they will be calmer with the exchange rate that exists at that time.
Q.: What is the equilibrium exchange rate for you?
OF: The equilibrium exchange rate for this month is 1,712 pesos per dollar. That comes out without taking into account the situation of the monetary and exchange fiscal sector, but simply taking into account the balance of the current account of the payment balance, so it can be a little high, but it is what gives us.
Q.: What do you think exporters will do? Will they wait to liquidate?
OF: They will wait a little more. Today it was convenient to demand importers, but probably at the request of the BCRA may not do all and that regulates the price within the market.
Q.: The increase of the dollar directly impacts services such as light and gas, which had high increases in 2024. The government promised to lower subsidies in this concept. Is it viable in electoral year?
OF: I believe that the adjustment will be given after the elections regarding the prices of public services such as electricity, gas and water, which can come after October, because The Government cannot risk much in terms of inflation being that its objective is precisely to decelerate it.
Source: Ambito
