He New exchange rate regime of Flotation administered between bands -What go from the $ 1,000 to the $ 1,400- For him Official dollarthe CEPO Elimination For human people and a new weight depreciationThey will have their impact on inflation. Consultants expect some days to start to begin to relieve prices and make new projections of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). While there is an March drag, the idea that a devaluation component is added also begins to emerge.
The President Javier Milei He assured that inflation of the fourth month of the year “March will be better”although the consultants questioned this possibility. In unison all economists repeat that It is very soon to predict an April inflation fact or how much this devaluation can impact and choose to handle with possible scenarios.
CPI: What will be the impact of the devaluation?
From the flotation, the wholesale exchange rate rose 11.1%. In that context, the PXQ consultant said that “in the short term, the success of the program will be determined by the government’s ability to avoid a spiralization of inflation and to enlarge the impact on economic activity.”
In that sense, the consultant chose to make an average of the transfer at prices of the last exchange of exchange from 2008 to 2023. “On average, in the first 6 months after the exchange jump, 80% of the magnitude of the jump moves at prices,” he said; However, he made an exception by taking as reference the leaving of the 2015-2016 stock: “He had a transfer at low prices compared to the rest of the recent experiences: 60% in the next 6 months after the exchange correction,” he added.
“There are reasons to think that this time is different”the consultant launched in his latest report and stressed that the government reaches this devaluation with “factors” that could reduce the transfer at prices, although also with others that could increase it. “Among the former, are The most aligned relative prices, fiscal surplus, more open economies and neutral or positive interest rates. Among the seconds, the inflation jump and low level of reserves. It should be noted that the latter can be neutralized by the magnitude of the disbursements, “he said.
The consultant Ecogo He started with the price survey on Friday to Monday and “no great jumps were yet observed.” However, the economist Rocío Bisang He assured in dialogue with the scope that “it is likely that part of the rise has been ‘armed’ in the last weeks of the month, since modifications were expected in the exchange scheme and not all businesses may have modified their prices waiting to see what happened this Monday.”
For now, for April Ecogo They project inflation from 3.8%also considering that the March data leaves a higher drag. This data is in line with the vision of Marina Dal Poggettowho said in radio statements that “it is likely that the April CPI is similar to that of March or is something up.”
New exchange scenario: projections of prices consultants
From the consultant Fmya, of Fernando Marullthey expressed that, “assuming that the official dollar ends in April at $ 1,250 and there is a transfer to limited inflation, We project April and May around 5% monthly and then it would fall to less than 2%; ending in 35% in 2025 (bonds on Friday discounted 40% in inflation). We assume some peer reopening and postponement of rates and gasoline settings. ”
Although from ANALYTICS They still expect to talk about April inflation, in their latest report they said that from the devaluation the inflation acceleration that began in February with the increase in parallel exchange rates will be “deepened”.
Meanwhile, from Balances They had projected for the fourth month of the year a price index close to 3%, although “with today’s photo” it could be above that number, but “it is not yet clear” and the price surveys of the last three weeks of April still remain.
“With a rise in the exchange rate of this style, it could be projected that April inflation is not so close to three but more similar to that of March,” said the economist Gonzalo Carrera of balance.
Key: The level at which the real exchange rate is stabilized
In the medium term, from Pxq, They affirm that “sustainability” will be given by the level at which the real exchange rate is stabilized, which is associated with the short -term objective, as well as the government’s ability to access the debt market again to refinance maturity.
“The exchange band is updated to 1% monthly, which will be appreciated in real terms provided that inflation is greater than 1%. With inflation in the area of 4% the next 3 months and slowing down to 2.2% average the second semester, the roof of the band in December would be equivalent to $ 1,235 per dollar at today months and 2.8% average the second semester, the ceiling at the end of 2025 would be equivalent to $ 1,177 per dollar at today’s price.
Source: Ambito
