The Wholesale inflation It was located in 1.5% In March and accumulated a 4.7% In the first three months of the year, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). While this data includes the exchange tension that was reflected in the parallel dollars, in April there will be the impact of the new exchange regime, which led the currency to the $ 1,198 this Monday and then yielded to $ 1,135.
This variation is a consequence of the rise of 1.5% in the “National Products” and of 1.3% in the “Imported products”. Within this last group it was the Greater rises in nine months. Within national items, increases in agricultural products (2.8%) and food and drinks (2.7%) highlighted.
In interannual terms, the wholesale internal price index (IPIM) increased 27.7%. While national products rose 30.6%, imported ones presented a deflation of 1.3%.
The general level of Wholesale Basic Internal Price Index (IPIB) showed an ascent of 1.4% in the same period. In this case, the variation is explained by the 1.4% rise in “national products” and 1.3% in “imported products.”
Also, the general level of Basic Price Price Index (IPP) registered an increase in 1.3% In the same period, as a consequence of the rise of 0.3% in the “Primary products” and of 1.6% in the “Products manufactured and electrical energy”.
As of this Monday there is a New exchange rate regime of Flotation administered between bands -What go from the $ 1,000 to the $ 1,400- For him Official dollarI also know eliminated the stocks For human people and a new weight depreciationThey will have their impact on inflation. The consultants hope that some days go by to begin to relieve prices and make new projections of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) April. While there is an March drag, the idea that a devaluation component is added also begins to emerge.
Inflation for April
In unison all economists repeat that It is very soon to predict an April inflation fact or how much this devaluation can impact and choose to handle with possible scenarios.
From the flotation, the wholesale exchange rate rose 11.1%. In that context, the PXQ consultant said that “in the short term, the success of the program will be determined by the government’s ability to avoid a spiralization of inflation and to enlarge the impact on economic activity.”
In that sense, the consultant chose to make an average of the transfer at prices of the last exchange of exchange from 2008 to 2023. “On average, in the first 6 months after the exchange jump, 80% of the magnitude of the jump moves at prices,” he said; However, he made an exception by taking as reference the leaving of the 2015-2016 stock: “He had a transfer at low prices compared to the rest of the recent experiences: 60% in the next 6 months after the exchange correction,” he added.
“There are reasons to think that this time is different”the consultant launched in his latest report and stressed that the government reaches this devaluation with “factors” that could reduce the transfer at prices, although also with others that could increase it. “Among the former, are The most aligned relative prices, fiscal surplus, more open economies and neutral or positive interest rates. Among the seconds, the inflation jump and low level of reserves. It should be noted that the latter can be neutralized by the magnitude of the disbursements, “he said.
Source: Ambito
