The new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)which includes disbursements GUADADOS RONDE THE $20 billion in several sections together with The recent modification of the new exchange schemealso set the guideline that the Government must comply with on the accumulation of reserves Net International, which must increase about US $ 8,900 million until the end of the year as signed with the agency.
Miracles Gismondieconomist and analyst Cohen financial allieshe explained it thus: “The new exchange frame has as its central objective the recomposition of net international reserves (RIN). The agreement with the IMF establishes quarterly goals by 2025 that, under the base scenario, They imply an accumulation of US $ 8,900 million to the end of the year. The objective is to close 2025 with a positive stock of US $ 1,600 million, based on a current negative level of US $ 7.3 billion. “
The expert clarified, however, that these goals They can adjust if the disbursements of multilateral and bilateral organisms do not specify in the expected amounts. “Punctually, if revenue from general financing (excluding project loans and IMF) themselves are below US $ 5,173 million projected for the whole year, Rin’s goals will be reduced proportionally, with an adjustment stop of up to US $ 4,000 million “he added.
According to this analysis, The BCRA must accumulate at least $ 5,000 million through purchases in the market until the end of the year. “That effort will be concentrated in the second and fourth quarter, with An estimated rhythm of US $ 1,400 million to June YU $ S4,000 million in the last quarter of the year“Gismondi explained.
For its part, from PPI They coincide in the analysis: “Since the accumulation goals of net reserves are more demanding In the second and fourth quarter of the year, The BCRA has clear incentives to buy currencies in the Mulc in the short term, taking advantage of the liquidation of the thick harvest. To meet the established goalsnet reserves should be increased by US $ 4,400 million in the Second quarter YU $ S4.6 billion in the roomwhile they could decrease by just US $ 100 million in the third quarter. “
The Central Bank needs to buy again at the Mulc
In three days of exchange flexibility and although the central bank remained neutral, The operators already analyze that, shortly, they must buy currencies in the Mulc. From Aurum values They explained that in the first two days, the average volume of operations was almost US $ 450 million per day.
Therefore, they analyze, “although the BCRA did not participate in the wheel in a net (BCRA reports without intervention), there is a goal of net reserves to 06/13/25 of increase of about US $ 5,000 million, and that the amount of business days ahead until that date is about 40 days, We think that in a few days the BCRA should begin to be present in the market as a net buyer. “
Therefore, they observed that To achieve this accumulation of net reserves, an average daily improvement of the net reserves of the order of US $ 140 million would be required, figure that implies 31% of the average volume operated in these first two days.
“This is why We believe that since the official purchase needs are so important regarding the operated volumeas long as the BCRA is not present in the market, The spot is moving below equilibrium depending on the rigorous conditions of accumulation of reserves“They closed.
Will the government achieve the goal?
As published on Wednesday the economist Fernando Marullan advance of the report of Fmya He maintains that There is consensus between economists that the Government will fulfill the IMF’s goal. “The BCRA has to accumulate reservations for US $ 1,500/2 billion in two months to meet the June goal. If you do not buy in the Mulc, you can increase currencies with access to markets either with repo or debt taking“He said from his networks.
Finally, from the Consultant 1816one of the most listened to of the City, evaluated the current status: “In our base scenario, in which the exchange rate does not reach the band of the band and there is no immediate access to the voluntary debt market, The BCRA (or, failing that, the treasure) will buy dollars inside the band, to accumulate reservations“
The Government “It is only certain that there are two months (until mid -June) to accumulate about US $ 5,000 million of net reserves Out of what comes from the organisms (to comply with the IMF and receive the June disbursement). The faster the least urgent country risk will be the purchases of currencies to be able to serve the debt without using the money that the fund lent “the analysis ended.
Source: Ambito
