The new exchange scheme, which implies the flotation between bands, applies after a dollar support system around 1% monthlythat already missed its resources. For the market, the change of strategy It was evident and necessary. For economists, too. However, they warn of the impact of the movement of the currency on the activity, both for the rise in the credit rate as well as the fall of consumption.
Sebastián Menescaldidirector of the consultant Eco GoHe believes that the greatest impact of the devaluation will come on the side of interest rates. “The rates will be more volatile and probably higher in real terms”, He warns, and estimates that the Credit Revolution in dollars –that tripled against 2023– And the pesos –that doubled– It will not charge such magnitude this year.
”The stock before allowed you to have cheap financing in pesos, but Since natural persons can arbitrate, you should have rates in higher pesosand that will impact the new credit and the economy, ”explains the economist.“ The growth is probably going to be brought together, ”concludes Menescaldi.
For Haroldo Montaguchief economist of the consultant Vectorthe flotation scheme will impact the activity by two channels. The first, one expected translation in the drop in income. “There will be less income available to allocate consumption and therefore a fall in the activity,”.
For its part, the former Deputy Minister of Economy Orlando Ferreres estimated, in dialogue with scope, that April inflation could be around 5%.
Devaluation: do not foresee impact on greater exports
Another important point is linked with the effects on export. Generally, a devaluation of the weight brings an increase in exported amounts, improving the commercial balance, since it is generated to the detriment of the fall in imports.
However, most Argentine exports, corn, wheat, oil – depend on international pricesthat today are down, Because of the tariff war Started by US President Donald Trump.
Then, according to Montagu’s analysis, “This devaluation would not impact major exports either, considering that it would have been a positive consequence. ”
A PRODUCTIVE WORLD Consultantwho prefers to speak off, brings another look at the debate. For the specialist, the opening process still “It is light“To grant”greater tranquility and trust“And he understands that the government will maintain the focus on sustaining the real exchange rate” relatively content “since The decisive variables in terms of activity are first the dollarthen inflation and finally credit.
For that reason, he points to that The Reservations goal with the IMF (US $ 4,000 million until June YU $ S9,000 to December) “It will not be fulfilled”And the economic team must solve That breach “through a waiver”. “If we stick to the cold letter of the background, The dollar has to go to the strip of $ 1300- $ 1350 to accumulate reservations”Explains the specialist.
Credit, more expensive for companies and families
Finally, Maximiliano Ramírezdirector of the consultant Lambdait does put the repair from the financial point of view. In dialogue with this medium, he explains that the increase in rates, both in the bond curve in pesos and also of interest of the deposits taken by the banks, “It was not correlated by an increase in the monetary policy rate”, But first the National Bank began and then other banks followed.
What implies the upward correction of the deposit rate? “Fundamentally an increase in loan rate. Banks live from generating Spred, so correlation is the increase in credit for both companies and families, ”says Ramírez.
Thus, in the short term the consultant not only projects An inflation level around 4.5% for April and 4.8% for Maywith a certain lag in June, but also an access to the newly restrictive credit.
In this context, it is worth remembering that Both the IMF and the REM project a 5% growth in 2025. “While the level of activity will be positive, it will be affected by these measures taken by the financial system,” concludes the economist.
For Montagu, however, the interannual growth observed in the latest INDEC data is a product “merely of the rebound“Regarding the” very bad “first semester of 2024.” There is no confuse that this year’s growth will be genuine, but above all a rebound last year, “emphasizes the economist. On this idea, the fall in real income is anchored, which will have an impact on consumption.
Source: Ambito
