The Government of Javier Milei began, during the past week, the so -called phase 3 of its economic program. Among the main measures are the agreement with the IMF and the consequent exit of the exchange rate. In this scenario, the economist Fausto Spotorno analyzed the impact of measures on prices and assured that the April inflation It will close around 3%.
The number predicted by Spotorno is less than 3.7% that reflected prices during the month of March. “There is, for now, an increase product of the end of the stock. We do hope that in May it will rise,” said the economist.
How much will the April inflation be
The new exchange scheme of the government has a Flotation between bands – $ 1,000 to $ 1,400 – Which means that, unless it exceeds these limits, Milei’s management will not intervene in the value of the dollar. From the departure of the CEPO, formalized last Monday, The official price of the US currency touched a $ 1,250 roof and then closed the week short at $ 1,160.
On this new scenario, Spotorno explained: “In the negotiation of prices there is a mix of dollars that was taken, That was one of the problems of the stocks that had the economy very restricted, few could import and access the official dollar. That’s why Every time the blue rose, the cost of the products rosethat was the one that was mostly taken. But also every time the officer rose. “
“When you take the stocks, more products begin to enter, there is more competition. Press on the margins of those who compete with imports, and that is why this negotiation And the intention of many of moving costs as well as the market telling him that he has no money, “he added in dialogue with Radio Miter.
In reference to waiting on the next consumer price index (CPI) of INDEC, of the month of April, Spotorno He assured that, according to their surveys, he hopes that government measures do not have an immediate impact on inflation. “In April we expect 2.9%, maybe it reaches 3%. It will be lower than March. In the first fortnight there were significant price drops, in case the tomato drawer, which in March, was $ 50,000 fell to $ 25,000 in April.
“Much of the March increases in food was for seasonal reasons, except the meat. In April, before the leaving of the stocks were announced, we saw how those same prices fell They had climbed, “he said.
Then, the economist said that, although for now there are no increases in the prices product of the length of the stocks, The measure may have an impact in May and inflation could approach March.
According to an economic advisor from Javier Milei, inflation will be below 2% in June or July
After the strong rise in the March inflation, The Government is reluctant to resume on the bearish road for the October elections. In this scenario, different officials – and even President Javier Milei himself – began a public campaign against the increase in prices.
In this sense, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, was directly involved in the dispute between manufacturers and supermarkets for Do not validate remarks in price lists.
BOGGIANO PHOTO – Yearbook.jpeg
In this context, the presidential economist and advisor Miguel Boggiano considered this Friday that the dollar will continue to fall in the coming weeks and that will contribute to a decrease in prices. “For June or July, inflation will probably be seen below 2%, ”He said in statements to Radio Rivadavia.
Boggiano differentiated phase 3 from the economic plan of the situation that was lived in convertibility, stating that there is now a floating exchange rate, and that the government keeps the fiscal balance. “The Government not only confirmed the fiscal surplus goal, but increased it, to 1.6% of the gross product, that is key“Boggiano said.
Source: Ambito
