According to its surveys, Spotorno argued that recent government measures will not generate an immediate impact on prices. “In April we expect 2.9%, maybe it reaches 3%. It will be lower than March. In the first fortnight there were significant price drops, in case the tomato drawer, which in March, was $ 50,000 fell to $ 25,000 in April, “he graph.
According to its analysis, a good part of the increases registered in food during March were due to seasonal factors, with the exception of meat. “In April, before the length of the stocks was announced, we saw how those same prices that had risen fell,” he added.
Spotorno also warned that, although for the moment there are no increases linked to the departure of the stocks, the measure could impact in May, with inflation that would approach the March levels again.
For its part, the presidential economist and advisor, Miguel Boggianohe was optimistic about the immediate future. “For June or July there will probably be inflation below 2%”, He affirmed in statements to Radio Rivadavia. In addition, he considered that the decrease in the price of the dollar observed in recent weeks could Contribute to prices relief.
The PXQ consultant stressed that “in the short term, the success of the program will be determined by the government’s ability to avoid a spiralization of inflation and morigize the impact on economic activity.”
To contextualize the possible transfer at prices, PXQ analyzed The inflationary dynamics after different exchange jumps between 2008 and 2023. “On average, in the first 6 months after the exchange jump it moves to prices 80% of the magnitude of the jump”They indicated. However, they marked a significant exception with respect to the 2015-2016 stock exit:” He had a transfer at low prices compared to the rest of the recent experiences: 60% in the next 6 months after the exchange correction. “
“There are reasons to think that this time is different,” said the consultantwhich listed factors that could cushion or enhance the impact. Among the former, they mentioned the correction of relative prices, the fiscal surplus, a more open economy and neutral or positive interest rates. Among the risks, they underlined the high level of inflation and low reserves stockalthough the latter could be compensated with the disbursement income, especially the one from the IMF for US $1,000 million.
Meanwhile, the consulting firm Ecogo began a new price survey between Friday and Monday, Without detecting “great jumps” In values. Economist Rocío Bisang explained to Scope that “it is likely that part of the rise has ‘Price’ in the last weeks of the month, Since modifications were expected in the exchange scheme and not all shops may have modified their prices waiting to see what was happening on Monday. “
Ecogo projects for April an inflation of 3.8%also taking into account the statistical drag that left March. This vision is shared by Marina Dal Poggetto, who argued in radial statements that “is probable that the April CPI is similar to March or is something up“
Finally, from the Fmya consultancy, directed by Fernando Marull, they anticipated that “assuming that the official dollar ends in April in $ 1,250 and there is a transfer to limited inflation, We project April and May around 5% monthly and then drop to less than 2%; ending in 35% in 2025 (the bonds on Friday discounted 40% in inflation). ”They also mentioned that some peer reopenings and the postponement of settings in rates and fuels could influence this scenario.
Some sectors began to see variations in prices after leaving the stocks. Such is the case of housing construction materials and hardware products, although the impact was less abrupt than expected. According to different actors in the area, the greatest increases were recorded in imported inputs, with rises between 8% and 12%while materials such as steel and floors maintained their values.
From the Ferretero sector, Agustín Giffiof the firm Gibeva explained that the replacement of products remains at normal levels and that not all suppliers have adjusted prices. “Some increased between 8% and 11%, but not all brands applied increases. The most affected inputs were those that depend on the official dollar, such as grinders, drills and compressors, which increased approximately 11% in these three days.”
The leaving of the stocks
Regarding the political decision to leave the stocks, the financial analyst, Javier Timerman, questioned the euphoric tone adopted by the ruling after the start of the new scheme. “You can’t measure the success or failure of a plan for what happens in a day, two, three or four”He said in a radio interview.
During the conversation, Timerman addressed the initial effects of the exchange band scheme agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although he acknowledged that the opening could generate favorable conditions to attract capital, he warned that its effects will not be immediate. “Open the stocks gives the confidence that if someone invests will be able to withdraw their money, those are positive things from the point of view to attract investments but can come in a year”, He explained.
Timerman also pointed out the disconnection between the official discourse and the social situation. “That kind of behavior add people,” he said, and remarked that “The reality is that people do not have a good time”In that sense, he warned about the growing lack of tolerance towards dissident opinions: “Argentine verbal violence clashes a lot.”
For its part, Spotorno He celebrated the decision to advance with a flotation scheme administered between bands, although he considered that the chosen moment was less favorable than the one presented months ago. “The ideal moment was December or January. The country risk was lower and inflation came in decline“He said in dialogue with Radio with you.
According to Spotorno, the government must have strengthened First your reservations before lifting the stocks. “They wanted to have the agreement with the IMF closed. Leaving without reservations is very risky. It’s like insurance in case something goes wrong, ”he explained.
The disarmament of the CEPO marked a turning point in the official economic policy. In this scenario, during the first days The market reacted positively: financial dollars moved within the lower range of the new bandthe bonds showed firmness and the country risk descended strongly. Although the actions backed slightly after the initial impulse, the signal was clear: the measure was well received. The unknown now revolves around its sustainability.
In this context, the main consultants of the City began publishing their analysis of the new scenario. According to Econviews, the initial balance is encouraging: “The first days without stocks were, without a doubt, a success for the government”
Although the transition to the new regime is still ongoing, from Miguel Ángel Kiguel’s consultant they argue that “The initial signals are encouraging and there are good reasons to think that the program can work.” They are committed to the fact that in the coming months, the thick harvest increases the supply of currencies and that the carry trade copper strength, leverage for the “roof” of the band as a shelter for investors.
One of the key novelties of this new scheme is that non -residents can operate in the local market, which opens new financing opportunities. Along these lines, JP Morgan recommended to its customers the purchase of Lecaps with expiration on August 15, 2025, highlighting that “The recent relief of exchange market standards marks a game change for local markets“Of course, they warn that the bet requires maintaining the position for at least six months.
Source: Ambito
