“What happened last week is unqualifiable”Said the economist in reference to the measures taken by the Executive.”If it wasn’t last week, it was going to be this or the next one. But that does not make it a strategic plan. The program still has the DNA of an agreement with the fund. It is a flying”He said in Rivadavia AM 630.
In addition, he raised doubts about the sustainability of the surplus and questioned the course of tax policy: “They signed with the fund a tax reform, but we do not know how to apply, neither at the national nor provincial level”
Regarding retentions to agriculture, Melconian suggested that the panorama is uncertain. “If one day the exchange rate is floating and there are retentions, how are you going to compete? And now, with the dollar going down, the government says it will buy, but that movie we already saw it”
He also warned about the lack of a clear monetary rule: “countries that achieve stability need rules. Here they continue to improvise. They even uploaded the interest rate against the decrease process.”
The economist He argued that the current economic model is still in a transition stagewithout a solid roadmap. “This is not yet a comprehensive program. Is just the beginning. There is a lot to define and order, ”he said.
According to Melconian, “a serious program is missing”
In another section of the interview, Melconian deepened his analysis of the departure of the stocks, the exchange stability and the risks facing the economic plan of the Government of Javier Milei. With your direct style, questioned the inconsistencies of the program and the lack of a defined course.
“What was done was just a monetary lubrication. This has DNA according to the Monetary Fund, yes, but it is not a comprehensive program. It is not yet”, He insisted. For Melconian, although the government shows fiscal order, the exchange or monetary front is not fully resolved:“Is mute in the monetary and contradictory in the exchange”
Asked about speculative capitals that could take advantage of the exchange opening, the economist warned: “Is it guaranteed that if the ‘Carry Trade’ enters, it will not go right away? That money has to stay, you can’t allow a new financial bicycle. If dollars enter but go quickly, we return to the problem we already know. ”
Regarding the behavior of the dollar in the coming months, it was prudent: “I am not a gypsy fortune teller. What I tell you is that the system is mounted, but the challenge is to work. You can have the dollar under $ 1,000 or above $ 1,400. That will define credibility, not the bands itself. ”
Melconian also put the magnifying glass on the commitments that the government assumed with the IMF: “Tax, pension, labor reform, changes in monotax … is all that realizable in this political context? It is not clear“As stated, these reforms require broad political agreements, something that is not yet glimpsed.
“March was a key month. You have to look well what happened, because it is the mirror of what can come. If the structural inflationary theme is not resolved and we continue with patches, the trust is going to be eroded”He stressed, also warning about the impact of inflation on purchasing power and consumption.
And he summed up: “This is the beginning of a marathon. It’s okay to start. But if there are no clear rules, consistency between fiscal, monetary and exchange, and deep reforms, it is not enough. It is not an economic plan, it is just a start. ”
Competitiveness: “Argentina is still a expensive country in dollars”
In the final part of his extensive interview, economist Carlos Melconian addressed a central theme for the real economy: The price level in dollars and how this affects the competitiveness of Argentina.
Asked about whether the country continues to be expensive in terms of foreign currencies, Melconian was categorical: “Yes, we are still expensive in dollars. And that is a structural problem that we dragged a long time ago“Explained that While the stock exit is a relevant step, it is not enough to correct background distortions if they are not accompanied by a tax reform and a deep labor reform.
“When we talk about dollar prices, it’s not just about the exchange rate. It also influences how internal prices, logistics costs, tax burden and salaries in relation to productivity are formed, ”he said.
In that sense, the economist referred to the comparison with the 90s, but warned that this context cannot be directly transferred to the present: “In the 90s you had a completely different exchange and global reality. Today, even the dollar in the United States has lost relative value due to inflation that they are also having. That affects the way we measure our prices in dollars. ”
Regarding the viability of the economic program of the Government of Javier Milei, Melconian was prudent: “This is not automatic. Without external financing and without sustained credibility, any stabilization attempt can fail. It does not reach with not issuing; a comprehensive and consistent policy is needed”
Finally, and with a friendly tone, Melconian thanked the space and left a phrase that summarizes his current approach: “I am not a futurologist, but It is clear that this is a marathon. The one who believes that everything is solved with a single step is wrong. Transformation requires time, deep reforms and much credibility”
Source: Ambito
