In recent days the president maintained a strong exchange with Hernán Lacunzaformer Minister of Economy of Mauricio Macri. Milei told him on social networks “If you want to discuss with me you first have to meet five conditions: 1. Fiscal surplus; 2. Pay the debt; 3. Raise the stocks; 4. Do not lie; 5. Do not operate to generate crisis.”
Meanwhile, In the media of the Ministry of Economy – and in accordance with the President – they comment that they will not intervene in the change market unless the currency reaches the band of the band.
Inflation
In addition, other issues weigh in the economic team. On the one hand, the recoil in the value of the dollar would help contain inflationary pressuresafter the rebound to the consumer price index (3.7%) registered in March -private estimates project between 4 and 5% for April.
The first numbers handled by the Palace of Finance show that it is under the transfer at prices for the correction of the official exchange rate. For example, they cite that in food there are few items that had “some increases such as oils”, in addition to weighing the rejection of lists with price increases by supermarkets. They claim that in other sectors such as cars the Pass Through It was zero (except in the case of a terminal that applied a 3%adjustment).
In parallelthe lower the dollar the easier will be for the Government to reach the – demanding – objective of accumulation of reserves which contemplates the agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
In private media it is estimated that you should buy about 3.5 billion dollars in the market to meet the June reserves goals, while the need for the treasure towards Julio amounts to at least 4,000 million (of which today has about 1.9 billion).
Milk and bread
But letting the official exchange rate fall outstanding new problems on the external front. Analysts consider that Exports are stagnant or in recoil, while imports record strong growth. March commercial exchange numbers show that the exported amounts fell 4.2% in relation to the same month last year while external purchases rose 47.5%. The commercial war unleashed by the tariffs imposed by the United States emerges further complicating the panorama.
“When products are imported that could not enter the Argentine market only for the cost of freight, such as bread or milk, we are in trouble”is commented on in the media in the industry.
The impact is not limited to manufacturing activity. Rural sector calculations show That producers who leased Campos, in general, will end the campaign to be loss, They lament in the sector.
Taxes
“The official exchange rate tends to the floor of the exchange band ($ 1,000) instead of the ceiling ($ 1,400). From the point of view of minimizing the inflationary impact it is good news. From the point of view of national production to this level of exchange rate the competitiveness problems intensify,” says the consultant IDESA
The business claim is known for lowering the tax pressure, an objective that the government also raises, but that cannot be carried out quickly.
In this sense, Idesa points out that there are taxes that “They are lethal for competitiveness” namely: the check tax (collected 1.6% of GDP); Export rights (1.0% of GDP) and provincial level, gross income tax collected 4.2% of GDP and 0.4% stamps tax. Meanwhile, at the municipal level, the industry and commerce rate raised 0.8% of GDP.
“These data show that the main distortive taxes generate income from the equivalent of 8% of GDP. This implies almost 30% of the total resources available to the national, provincial and municipal public sector.” With these data, The consultant concludes that “There are no possibilities to eliminate or reduce these distortive taxes without falling back into fiscal deficit. ” However, these taxes are lethal for competitiveness.
Companies
In this sense, a fact summarizes the problem: The official numbers collected by Argentine Integrated System (SIPA) show that companies are not created, on the contrary, SMEs are closing.
The blinds fell more than 10,000 – in December 2023, 390,889 employers with up to 5 people had registered, a figure that was reduced to 380,187 last February -.
To have an idea, always based on official data, in December of the 2019 There were 401,983 companies With up to 5 employeeswith the beginning of Pandemia in March 2020 decreases to 386,702 and In December of 2024 It is recorded, at least for now, the lowest figure with 380,187 MSMEs. There are less mini companies than during pandemia.
Loss of employment generated by the closure of companies It was partially compensated for the absorption of labor in other companies.
Thus, the official data of Unemployment for the fourth quarter of 2024 They show an unemployment rate of 6.4%, above the end of 2023 (5.7%), but with an improvement compared to the third quarter of 2024 (6.9%).
In addition, the problem that continues to subsist is The low quality of work in a labor market in which informality is very high.
Indec numbers show that in last quarter of last year (last data available) The informal employment rate was 42%, In other words, occupied people, whether independent or in dependency relationship, who develop their activities outside the norms that regulate them.
Dollars
From a long -term medium perspective, it is to anticipate that the dollar is less worth (discounted inflation) than the levels recorded in the last decades of the turbulent Argentine economic history.
This would be so for the perspective of development of Important sectors that would generate additional 60 billion exports around 2030according to an ecolatin projection.
Agriculture could add 9,000 million dollars, knowledge services 16,000 million dollars, oil and gas 25 billion and mining -10,000 million dollars, according to this consultant. The jump would be greater than 70% taking into account that the estimation of exports by 2025 is 83,000 million dollars, according to the market consensus.
Meanwhile, the problem is presented for activities that do not have an important natural advantage and suffer what has occurred in calling the “Argentine cost”.
A recent study by the Institute for Management Development of Switzerland places Argentina in 66th position for its low competitiveness in a sample of 67 countries (the last in the table is Venezuela). Not for nothing the country is Among the three that charge the most taxes (on those they contribute) in the world.
Source: Ambito
