“2024 was a good year for Argentine exports, by increasing 20%. In the first two months of this year they continue to grow, to a rhythm less than 4%, And a similar percentage is expected for the whole year ”, The Mediterranean Foundation points out.
The report prepared by the Economist Jorge Day It states that not all regions of the country are under the same conditions to face the problems that there will be year, such as the convulsed context of global trade, poor infrastructure and exchange rate.
When comparing with what happened last year ensures that “There was a strong increase in foreign sales, thanks to a greater grain harvest, along with its industrialization (with strong weight in total exports). This fact explains that the primary and agro -industrial sectors (MOA) increased by 26% and 24% annual, respectively, in those external sales. ”
“To other more regional items, they went well, but to a lesser percentage. In primary, fresh fruits increased by 11% and vegetables without elaborating by 7%; In the MOA, alcoholic beverages did it by 11%(wines, 4%), and dairy products in 6%, ”explains Day.
The report indicates that “also The export of exports in fuel played an important role (31%), Playing a cow a significant role. ”
“Instead, it was less the impulse by the industry that is not agricultural base, in which Argentina has less advantage with respect to the world, ”clarifies the economist. In that sense, he details that“ MOI exports (manufactures of industrial origin) increased 6%”last year.
“Those of Its main item (cars) remained stable, and the same with chemicals. Common (and manufacturing) metals increased by 12%, while electrical machines and equipment decreased by 9%, ”says the work.
As an exception within the MOI, says the report that “are precious metals, associated with metal mining, with a significant increase in 2024 (28%).”
Exports: What is the perspective of 2025?
The Mediterranean Foundation report states that “At global level, an increase of 5% of foreign sales this year is forecast”. In detailing the behavior by sector, it is pointed out that “for this year a stable harvest of grains is expected, and the same in the exports of its derivatives.”
“It is estimated Increase in oil (impulse of cow death) and in mining products, That, in addition they would take advantage of the rigi, ”adds the study.
It indicates, on the other hand, that there are international and national risks that can alter the projection. “In the first case, This Trump and its commercial policy, which threatens to browse the board of world trade if their threats are fulfilled, with less external demand and lower international prices, ”says the economist. The work adds that“ that would clearly complicate Argentine exports ”.
“As for national risks, there is the concern of high costs in dollarswhich reduces Argentine competitiveness. If the economy stabilizes, these high costs would be maintained, ”warns the author of the analysis.
In that case, he argues that “the national challenge andStá in how to move the chips to reduce the other costs, as non -salary work and regulations. ”
Meanwhile, from a regional perspective, other costs to be reduced can be mentioned. “For rPampeana egion is clearly the need to reduce or eliminate withholdings which represent 4.6% of the national collection. In the case of PEtroleras and miners, another problem is that of infrastructure, necessary to transport greater volumes abroad, ”the report details.
On the other hand, it is mentioned that “e the case of economies regional (the other agro and agribusiness), a serious problem are high tariffs to enter other countries, Reating competitiveness. ”
“The typical case is the difference with Chile, which exports with a large number of countries with zero tariff. The key is to hold trade agreements to reduce tariffs,” is recommended.
However, it is clarified that Decrease tariffs in Argentina “would threaten the import industry of import” such as appliances, computer science and textiles, among others, with strong weight in the national economy.
The work indicates that “for exports to maintain dynamism and do so in more sectors and regions, The advance of structural reforms is key. ”
Source: Ambito
