With the Start of phase 3 of the economic program and after him 8.8% jump In the official exchange rate between April 11 and 16, after the Exit from the main dollartwo private consultants confirmed that a Significant transfer at prices (Pass-Through). The general level of prices remained practically stable And core inflation barely rose 0.2% in the week, according to high frequency surveys. This stability is explained, in part, because the official dollar He ended up backing and returned to the initial value, lor that diluted the impact of the devaluation and avoided an effective transfer at prices.
According to Facimex Research’s daily report, this behavior suggests a Very low or zero transfer to prices (Pass-Through), at least in the short term. Moreover, in the second week of the month, the same indicator had registered a deflation of 0.3% weekly.
In monthly terms, inflation estimates also reflect a decline compared to previous months. In the end-to-end measurement of the last 30 days, the CPI-OJF marked a rise of only 1.5%, while the accumulated of the first 18 days of April compared to the same March period threw an increase of 2.3%, with an inflation core of 1.6%. This is the least record of accumulated inflation since April 2020, in full pandemic.
On the other hand, Balad measured an inflation of 0.8% weekly and estimated a monthly price rise of 3.5%, while Eco Go projects an April inflation of 3.5% and Facimex maintains its estimate at 4.0% monthly.
Despite the apparent inflationary truce, economists consulted keep caution. From Facimex they warned that trend will depend on the evolution of the exchange rate in the coming weeks and monetary policy, with the policy interest rate by 29%, well below the levels of previous months.
On the other hand, from PXQ they revealed that, “although a slight price acceleration is perceived, it is very far from what is observed in previous devaluatory episodes. In the graph presented below, the daily evolution of prices is shown during March and April. There it is observed that, on April 14 and 15, the daily variation went from +0.1% to +0.3%.”
Dollar: What happened after the implementation of the exchange scheme
After an initial increase after the announcement of the new exchange scheme, The wholesale dollar came to operate this Monday below the level of Friday in which the regime was announced. “At the moment, the flows help, but also helps expectation on future flows, especially non -resident investors, after the BCRA measures in this regard,” added Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist of Grupo SBS
“This led to an appreciation of the weight and a strong demand for titles in pesos. Therefore, another factor to follow closely is how much of these expected flows are ended up materializing, in addition to monitor the rhythm of liquidation of agro in full thick harvest“Franco closed.
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IMF, Liquidation and “Carry Trade”, the causes behind the casualty
When analyzing the arrival of Fresh dollarsfrom CEPEC explained: “They already disbursed US $ 12,000 million by the IMFto those who join U $ S6.100 millions from International organizations, U $ 2,000 millions in operations of Repo with banks and U $ S5,000 Millions of the Swap with China. In this way, It is projected that the year closes with an income of currencies of the order of US $ 28,000 million, according to the BCRA information“
According to this analysis, “It is a significant injection of dollars that supports, in our opinion, an exchange rate that, in the short term, will go down.”
In turn, from Bursatile They also agreed that the dollar I would continue Your downward path But, in this case, also supported by the renovated “Carry Trade”. “You have to keep in mind that The decline of the dollar can be deepened in the coming weeks due to foreign capital income to make “Carry Trade”authorized by the government with a minimum permanence of 6 months. “
For its part, for the economist Gustavo Ber The official dollar could go to the lower band. This was explained: “It is to the favorable macro expectation that the official dollar continues to decrease, Possibly to the lower band of the $ 1,000, from the offer of the field – in high seasonality stage – together with renewed bets towards the ‘Carry Trade’ “.
“The latter now coming not only from local participants but also foreigners, which would give it a greater envy to the avalanche of dollars in the short termhence the tactical hurry in sales, although this time together with prudential macro measures to mitigate an eventual future volatility, “he said.
Source: Ambito
