The Economic activity I would have registered a Recook in the monthly measurement in March After 10 consecutive months without losses, according to a measurement of the Balance consultant, Shortly after knowing the rise in the official indicator in February. Days ago, Another private survey He also showed possible monthly contraction.
The advance of Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) Balance revealed that the de -stationalized series would have fallen 1.0% monthly during the last month in relation to the February registry.
For its part, during the past month, the agricultural EMAE grew 4% year -on -year, contributing 0.4 percentage points in the interannual variation of | EMAE. In addition, he climbed 1.8% in unstacted terms versus February.
Economic Activity: March would close in intermensual fall
In tune with balance, a survey published days ago by the LCG consultantwhose executive director is Javier Okseniukannounced that economic activity would have suffered a slowdown last month, possibly affected by a scenario of “greater uncertainty” From increasing expectations on a modification of the exchange regime, which were confirmed with the release of restrictions in mid -April.
Specifically, explains the last LCG report, in March a Fall in collection associated with internal taxes such as VAT and credits and debit; and the Imports of consumer goods retreated 9.3% In unstacted terms, interrupting a three -month rise run.
In turn, Consumer confidence showed a significant decline (the most pronounced since September 2024); Sales of durable goods deepened their fall; and the indicators linked to industrial production also show positive signals.
Economic activity, in green during the first quarter
The survey of balance also states that, if the drop in March, the de-stationalized series “would show a 1.6% growth in the first three months of the year vs. the last quarter of 2024, leaving 0.7% below the historical record (4T-2017).”
In the interannual comparison, the analysis showed that the economy would have grown 5% in the third month of the year. In this way, he said that “the first quarter of the year would close with a 5.8% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024”.
He also explained that “EMAE excluding the agricultural sector climbed 5.1% year -on -year in March (after registering an increase of almost 6% year -on -year in February).” In this way, it contributed 4.6 percentage points to the annual growth of the EMAE. However, its measurement without seasonality recorded a 1.2% versus February drop.
At the same time, he cut the estimate of annual growth by 2025, indicating that “due to the inflationary acceleration of March, the modification of the exchange scheme in mid -April and a more adverse international context, we hope that the economy will grow 5% in 2025”. Previously projected an annual advance of 5.5% for this calendar.
The private report is announced after the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) has published the growth of EMAE in February, which reached 5.7% year -on -year and 0.8% against the January registry.
Source: Ambito
