Foreign trade: Strong US business-exports in front of Trump’s customs package

Increasing exports, more production: Preliminary effects because of the tariffs of US President Donald Trump pushed the German economy in March. While exports were increasing to the USA again, production grew as strongly as it has not been in more than three years. In March, industry, construction and energy suppliers made 3.0 percent more than in the previous month of February. However, Donald Trump’s aggressive customs policy is likely to slow down a recovery of the German economy.

In March, Germany’s exporters were worth 133.2 billion euros abroad, as the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden reported. That was 1.1 percent more than in the previous month and 2.3 percent more than a year earlier. Most exports were worth 14.6 billion euros, once again went to the United States, Germany’s most important export country: exports to the USA grew by calendar and seasonally adjusted by 2.4 percent.

The above -average plus is also due to the fact that companies have preferred deliveries to avoid Trump’s tariffs. German exports had grown in February, especially to the USA.

“The big end comes all over the world.”

“Unfortunately, this easy increase in numbers is not upward trend, said Dirk Jandura, President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, Services (BGA). The medium -term perspective remains through the” irresponsible trade policy “of the American President.” The big end comes all over the world. “

The surprisingly strong production of German companies in March also indicates an advanced effects. So the production of German export hits such as cars and machines grew, and there was a sudden increase in medicines. Economists such as Sebastian Dullien from the Institute for Macroeconomics and economic stimulus research at the Hans Böckler Foundation also see it a stabilization of the economy at a low level. “This development indicates that the cyclical downturn in German industry comes towards an end.”

Strong businesses with Europe

The German exports not only increased to the United States, but also clearly to the EU’s partner countries – by 3.1 percent to 72.3 billion euros. Business with the euro zone grew even more (plus 3.8 percent). Exports to China even increased by 10.2 percent to 7.5 billion euros.

The numbers are still unaffected by the huge customs package that Trump announced in early April. His tariffs suffocate hopes for the local exporters in the germ, who are an engine for the German economy in good years. In April, the IFO exporter expectations fell to one of the lowest values ​​since the financial crisis. Trump has already suspended part of his customs package for 90 days, but the remaining base custom of ten percent is still high. Trump’s erratic customs policy, which threatens pharmaceuticals with tariffs, is enormously unsettling companies.

Export association calls for new free trade agreements

“In the coming months, we, but especially the United States, will feel the effects of customs confusion,” says BGA President Jandura. In order to create independence from the United States, new free trade agreements are necessary and a further development of the EU internal market.

On the other hand, economists were behavioral optimistic. It is still unclear whether the export data is only a straw fire, says Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at Liechtensteiner VP Bank. Recently increased order inputs and the surprisingly strong industrial production indicate that German companies showed a certain robustness after years of swarming. A slight improvement is in sight – “everything on the condition that there is no escalating trade conflict”.