World trade: Analysis: Trump-Zölle in China endanger jobs in Germany

According to the credit insurer Allianz Trade, the trade war between the United States and China endangers tens of thousands of jobs in Germany. Exporters from China are likely to push into the European market and especially Germany if the United States and China should not approach, according to the analysis that is available to the German Press Agency.

In April, US President Donald Trump ordered additional tariffs of 145 percent on goods from China. Chinese companies should therefore try to find other sales markets for their goods, the analysis says. This increases the competitive pressure to German companies at home and abroad because the offer increases.

Allianz trade boss: Move US tariffs

According to the Allianz Trade calculation, which has its Germany seat in Hamburg, around 14 percent of Chinese export relocations can land in Germany over the next three years. This corresponds to goods worth around $ 33 billion (around 29.3 billion euros).

“The US tariffs lead to considerable shifts in trade flows almost all over the world,” said the alliance of Allianz Trade, Milo Bogaerts, according to the announcement.

Jobs, especially in southern Germany, endangered

According to the forecast, between 17,000 and 25,000 jobs in German industry are at risk in the event of a shift in goods. In mechanical engineering, the textile industry and companies, positions that produce household goods and sanitary products could be eliminated. Companies that produce electronics, computers and vehicles are also affected.

The consequences could be mainly in southern Germany: According to the examination, there are comparatively large number of industrial companies in the regions of Upper Franconia (Bavaria), Tübingen and area Freiburg (both Baden-Württemberg) that manufacture such products.

Allianz Trade, formerly Euler Hermes, is a daughter of the Munich Insurance Group Allianz. According to its own information, the company is the market leader in the credit insurance business and employs more than 5,800 people worldwide. The headquarters are at Paris.