To avoid further speculation, the government ratified the retentions reduction policy only in the short term to deepen the brief bonanza period in terms of currency settlement by the agricultural sector.
In Argentina, the stability of the exchange rate is promoted by the liquidation periods, – golds of gold, in autumn soybeans and in summer the wheat and It becomes a challenging phenomenon during the remaining months.
“There is a first impulse to pronounce seasonality. During the entry of dollars for the harvest, the government has surplus. When the dollars of the harvest are not, the government has a deficit. It is seen in the shopping scheme and dollars of the Central Bank, ”explained the economist of CP consultancy, Pablo Moldovanin an academic meeting organized by students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences.
In that sense, in the last appointment among part of the economic team, composed of the head of Arca, Juan Pazo; the director of the Central Bank, Federico Furiaseand the advisors of Minister Luis Caputo, Felipe Nuñez and Martín Vauthierand agricultural producers in the Rosario trade stock marketthe government ratified the end of the decline in retentions and its intention that The dollar approaches the band’s floor and not to the roofwhile the current exchange scheme lasts.
In the words of an entrepreneur who participated in the meeting, the officials approached “reiterate that the model can only close with exchange rate appreciation“And ensure that”The exchange rate will effectively descend“Therefore, in front of more than fifty people, conclude that”It is better for producers to sell soybeans and go to the rate”Says who was in the Rosario Stock Exchange last Friday.
The return of retentions is not seen with special concern only for the soybean complex. Wheat is going through a similar situation. The transitory scheme until June was established as follows:
- Soy (Poroto): From 33% to 26%.
- Soy (Oil and flour): From 31% to 24.5%.
- Wheat, barley, sorghum and corn: 12% to 9.5%.
- Sunflower: 7% to 5.5%.
Payment in dollars for producers: the proposal that arrives for the circulation of currencies
This is not the only proposal that the government offers to a sector that alert for the loss of profit marginsboth for the exchange rate, but also due to the fall in international prices.
This newspaper has a representative voice of agriculture who, days ago, the Government consulted What opinion deserved the possibility of allowing the payment of agricultural supplies in dollars.
It turns out that in the second semester plans to invest around US $ 17.5 billion for fine and thick planting of wheat and barley in July, and the sowing of soybeans and corn between September and October. The amount would be dedicated to the purchase of Machinery, seeds, agrochemicals, fertilizers, trucks and work.
From the sector they replied that it could be analyzed as long as exporters were also allowed to pay producers in foreign currency. The government’s response, they add off, was that the ultimate goal of the measure has to do with circulating “The dollars of the producers mattress”
“If they lifted The restriction of liquidating dollars at the official exchange rate five days after having entered bank accountswe could pay in that currency, ”explains a benchmark of the export sector.
Given the government’s intention to eliminate taxes during 2025, The field suggests that Caputo could link that option for producers with the elimination of the tax on the debit and creditsto favor foreign currency operations.
It is important to note that the latter is a speculation by the sector, considering separately the possibility of operationalizing both initiatives. Officially, the Government has not mentioned in this regard.
This media tried to communicate with the Ministry of Economy to contrast, add or clarify the version of the source, but had no answer.
Low prices and profitability: the status of situation that the sector warns
In this context, a report of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC) Highlights the “complex equation” faced by producers:
- Depressed international prices: Soy is traded by about US $ 380/ton, 15% below the historical average.
- Unfavorable exchange rate: The official dollar, anchored at the bottom of the 1,000 -1,400 band, does not compensate the local costs (fertilizers +35% year -on -year, diesel +50%).
- Low profitability: According to the Argentine Rural Society, the net margin per hectare of soybeans is negative in 4 of the 5 main producing provinces.
“A nuance to the above may be that the reduction of withholdings (26% soy vs. 33% prior) and a exchange gap in historical minimums (5-7% according to BCRA, April 2025) It allows the producer to sell their soy to the official dollar ($ 1,100) and repurchase financial dollars (MEP/CCL) at an almost identical pricewithout significant loss, ”explains the consultant.
“The decline in retentions of January 2025 seems to have reached its political and fiscal limit. With negative net reserves only reversed by international loans and a field that already operates at 82% of its installed capacity (CRA data), The government has no room to give up more income without putting the agreement with the IMF at risk”, Concludes Cepec.
Thus, from the export sector they estimate that The flow of currency per grain settlement will remain around US $ 2300 million per month during the first semester.
The last data of the Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic (Ciara) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC) goes online: during April the companies of the agro -export complex They settled currencies for a total of US $ 2524 milliona growth of 32% year -on -year and a 34% rise against Maro this year.
“They will accompany, but not to the extent that it was initially expected, around US $ 3000 per month,” estimates a consultant.
“Fear of Escrache”, the feeling that brings together entrepreneurs during official appointments
Agro looks at Excel and projects a year up in terms of profitability. That is why he insists on improving communication with the government: “Entrepreneurs do not want to come together for fear of disagreement, the escrache for not finding a point of agreement”, Confesses a source of the private sector. In turn, he says that the appointments with the officials are carried out more regularly in the Ark offices rather than in the Ministry of Economy. The meetings in that body decrease the possibilities of running into journalists.
This media tried to communicate with the Ministry of Economy to contrast, add or clarify the version of the source, but had no answer.
The observation is not only addressed to the President, who took as inhabit to insult politicians and professionals who differ from his management, but also to the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, the person with whom they maintain greater contact between both figures: “We see a worrying change of attitude between the cap of macro management and the current. It is very difficult for the economic team to accept discrepancies. We understand the conviction about the economic direction, but There is some violence installed in management proposals that are increasingly uncomfortable”, Warn this medium.
Source: Ambito
