Despite this turn, doubts about the accumulation of reserves and inflationary stability persist, just when the first election month of the 2025 calendar begins, with key voting in Salta, Jujuy, San Luis, Chaco and the City of Buenos Aires.
The exchange unification implemented on April 14 by the government of Javier Milei It has already given its first visible result: the deposits in dollars of the private sector increased by more than US $1 billionafter having fallen US $ 2,500 million in the first months of the year.
Despite this turn, doubts about the accumulation of reserves and inflationary stability persist, just when the first election month of the 2025 calendar begins, with key voting in Salta, Jujuy, San Luis, Chaco and the City of Buenos Aires.
The Central Bank reported that as of April 25, private deposits in US currency exceeded US $30.2 billion. The upward trend was accompanied by a fixed deadlines output for pesos for $ 1.76 billion between April 11 and 22.
The factors that promoted this reconfiguration were:
- the elimination of the stocks for human people;
- the band scheme between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400 for the official exchange rate;
- the entrance of US $ 12,000 million of the IMF;
- and the expectation of greater facilities to use dollars in daily transactions.
Milei Caputo Dollar
Scope
The director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, had pointed out that Argentines retain more than US $ 200,000 million outside the financial system, “under the mattress and God knows where.” In this sense, the Government prepares an incentive package so that the stored currencies begin to circulate in the formal economy. Luis Caputo said that in the Next two weeks there will be an advertisement to promote the use of dollars, both in daily operations and in the financial system. Among the options under study are:
- tax benefits for dollar payments;
- Reduction of check tax for transactions in currency;
- incentives to agro -exporters to liquidate outside the single change market;
- and qualification of payments with QR and dollar cards.
The intention is to consolidate a currency competence scheme that allows the remumination in pesos and dollars at the same time. The Treasury would continue to absorb weights by placing bonds to keep the money supply low.
Inflation: Private projections point to a deceleration
According to private consultants, April inflation would have been less than March (3.7% according to INDEC).
- C&T Advisors estimated 2.7% for Greater Buenos Aires;
- LCG measured deflation in meats and vegetables, with food in general down 0.4% in the last week;
- Ecogo projected a general inflation of 3%;
- Balancing calculated 3.3%, with a core at 3.4%;
- PxQ detected slight acceleration but much lower than previous devaluatory episodes;
- Foundation Libertad y Progreso estimated an inflation between 2.7% and 3%;
- Ecolatina projected a variation close to 3%;
- Abeceb predicted between 2.8% and 3.2%.
The official index will be known on Wednesday, May 14 at 4:00 p.m.
2025 elections: provinces and CABA open the electoral calendar
On Sunday, May 11, four provinces will hold provincial legislative elections:
- Salta: Legislators, councilors and mayor of Aguas Blancas are voted. Conventional municipal are also chosen in 20 locations. Electronic vote will be used and there will be no step.
- Chaco: 16 legislative benches are renewed. There is no step and traditional system is used with party tickets.
- Jujuy: 24 provincial deputies, councilors and municipal commissioners are elected. Unique paper ticket is used and there is no step.
- San Luis: half of both provincial legislative and deliberative councils are renewed. Intendants are also voted. It will be with a single ballot without step.
Besides:
- May 18: Legislative elections in City of Buenos Aires.
- June 8: elections in missions.
- June 29: Legislative elections in Santa Fe and Formosa.
- September 7: elections in the province of Buenos Aires.
The official strategy should align economic growth, low inflation and exchange stability as the basis of electoral discourse, with focus on incentives to the use of dollars to increase monetization without resorting to monetary issuance.
Source: Ambito
