With the day on Tuesday, the Central Bank (BCRA) accumulated 12 wheels without buying or selling currencies in the Free and unique market of changes (Mulc) And in the City they begin to ask themselves When the monetary entity will begin to accumulate dollars To meet the challenging reservations imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In parallel, Federico Furiase, Director of the BCRA and right hand of Minister Luis Caputo, said there are other alternatives to add reservations and trusts that they will arrive Dollar income on the capital account without needing to “go to the band’s floor.”
In this way, in the ruling party they have a capital income from Non -resident investorswhich would reinforce the dollar offer in the market and would push the exchange rate towards the lower end of the band. During a presentation he made at the event “Provincial Public Finance”, of ADCAP Grupo Financiero and DLA Piper, the official insisted that “The new exchange scheme is designed for the exchange rate to be closer to the floor than from the ceiling, for a matter of flow” and that priority is deflation.
At this point it is important to point out that although lso gross reservations fell $ 200 million in the last short weekthe BCRA closed April with a stock of gross reserves for US $ 38,960 million. “If the accumulation of reserves is considered without accounting for the disbursements of international organizations from the adoption of the band scheme, Gross reserves amounted to US $ 1,079 million in the month“They indicated from Cohen.
In fact, much of this rise is due to the increase in bank lace, product of the Private dollar deposits growth, which rose US $ 1,322 million since April 11.
When does the purchase of currencies start in the Mulc for the Government?
“While both the statement of the BCRA As the IMF technical report admit that the BCRA buy reservations within the band, the mecon has repeatedly emphasized that it will only intervene in the market of changes in the boundaries of the band (today $ 994-1,408). This generates doubts within the market in how it will meet the reserves goal raised by the IMF “they said on Tuesday from Romano Group.
At the moment, if the IMF methodology is taken into account, Net reserves are located around US $ 5.3 billionthe highest level from the beginning of 2023. However, it was clarified that “in terms of goals, disbursements of intergovernmental international organizations to the established limit and the IMF disbursements” are excluded, so that To strictly fulfill the June goal, approximately US $ 5,000 million should be purchased.
That is why, from Romano Group they wondered “How Mecon will do to meet the goal (if he decides to do it) if he will only buy reservations on the band of the band.”
For its part, from LCG They assured that in the short term it is expected that the liquidation of the thick harvest and the temporary decline of retentions Promote reservations at least Until Junealthough that will depend on the intervention policy that ends up defining the BCRA. “The agreement with the IMF enables purchases inside the bands, but the government emphasizes that it will only buy when the FX is located on the floor,” they recalled.
But, for this consultant, “The decision to intervene only on the floor will be modified” If you want to meet the first review since it implies accumulating reservations for US $ 430 million until June 13.
In turn, from PPIanalyzed how it was the performance and demand of currencies in recent weeks and said: “The official and financial dollar parked below the average level of the flotation band. With the settlement of the agriculture traction and the contained private demand, it will be key to see if the exchange rate continues to approach the band of the band and If finally the BCRA starts buying dollars to meet the reserve goal. “
The Government says that it already has dollars to meet the maturities
In the presentation that was made on Tuesday, Furiase remarked that the National Treasury It already has much of the dollars necessary to face the expiration of external debt With bonists in July. This figure amounts to U $ 4,200 millionand the part that fails to accumulate will be acquired to Central Bank.
In addition, the economist Furiase explained in what context the Central Bank decides to issue money: When the exchange rate reaches the floor of the established band or when the treasure fails to refinance all its maturities. In the latter case, what the economic team calls “Anker Point” is activated, in reference to the consultant founded by Caputo. In that case, the purchase of dollars from the Central Bank can be made within the exchange band.
Source: Ambito
