The City’s Gurús worsened their inflation projections For the coming months, after the acceleration of March inflation and the flexibility of the stocks, which led to an increase in the official exchange rate. For April, the market awaits a price increase of 3.2%, while for the accumulated 2025 it foresees 31.8%.
This was reported by the Central Bank (BCRA), that this Thursday published the Survey of market expectations (REM) made in April. 29 consultants and research centers, plus 12 financial entities participated in it.
The private sector hopes that from May the price auctions will slow down, To stay on an apartment close to 2% monthly between June and October. For the first time in the year the estimate of inflation throughout the year exceeded 30%.
It should be noted that the variation of the consumer price index (CPI) expected for April was lower than expected after the decision of the Government to release stock for human people, giving way to a new exchange scheme of flotationwith a $ 1,000 floor and a roof of $ 1,400.
Dollar
As for the dollar, the participants of the REM project an official exchange rate to $ 1,171 by the end of May, which implies a Increase of almost $ 80 compared to the March survey. Also, by the end of 2025 they expect a value of $ 1,322.
Thus, The expected interannual variation was 29.5%6.8 percentage points (pp) more compared to the previous REM. After the modification of the exchange regime, made within the framework of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the dollar rose almost 9% in April.
However, For May and the following months, the prices agreed in the futures market indicate an expectation of greater calmalthough in recent days the rumor began to gain weight that the BCRA is intervening in the Rofex to take the currency near the band of the band.
GDP, unemployment and foreign trade
On the other hand, the market slightly increased its improvement forecast in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)by calculating an improvement of 5.1% versus 2024, when 5% was expected before.
The rate of unemployment Open for the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 7%, while by the end of 2025 the calculation is that unemployment would drop to 6.5%.
As for the foreign trade Of goods, the gurús estimated a surplus of US $ 9,811 million. In relation to the previous REM, import expectations raised and reduced exports.
Source: Ambito
